THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.7%winner in the projected 1–2–3 63.7%212 races · latest settled day: #1 7/20, top-3 12/20forensic read: #1 27.3% · top-3 63.3% (139)full record →
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
No confirmed early pace on the book, so this one may turn tactical. Winners here spend about 50% of their energy before the final two furlongs and quicken late. On the measured reads, STAR VELOCITY leads on 83, 11pts clear of COURT ALERT (IRE) — in form. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is RED LEGS — the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it. The market agrees — it makes STAR VELOCITY the 83% favourite.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 2
STAR VELOCITY
OR · Rossa Ryan / Ralph Beckett
MARKET 1.2 · the market rates it a 83% chance
83.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (83.0)Race-fit — ran 8 days ago
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 1
COURT ALERT (IRE)
OR · Charles Bishop / Eve Johnson Houghton
MARKET drifting 5.1 → 6.4 · the market rates it a 16% chance
72.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−Rated #2 in this field (72.0)Stable in form this week — 3 wins from 15 runs
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 4
RED LEGS
OR · Marco Ghiani / Martin Dunne
MARKET drifting 130 → 150 · the market rates it a 1% chance
48.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 6+ / 1−Rated #3 in this field (48.0)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare result
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1STAR VELOCITYnet +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, yard hot, FormLab watch flag
2COURT ALERT (IRE)net +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, yard hot
3RED LEGSnet +3race-fit (ran <=45d), top-2 late speed today, FormLab watch flag
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. COURT ALERT (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge STAR VELOCITY lacks: among the two fastest on speed against its past fields.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (no confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by front-runners 57% · prominent racers 29% (21 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Stiff, uphill finish — a real test of stamina in the closing stages. Draw: Straight course: HIGH best on good/quick. LOW strongly favoured when soft. Round-course draw modest. Winners’ energy signature: 50.26% spent early (band 49.8–50.66%, 29 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~2 at halfway, 0.02s off the lead). No confirmed early type — the likely leader can dictate, a real edge at a track this front/prominent-biased.
Where the pace is drawn · 4 runners · stalls 1–4
1234
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: STAR VELOCITY is unraced on softer ground · COURT ALERT (IRE) is 0/2 on softer ground · RED LEGS is 0/1 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
STAR VELOCITYMID48.2%104.1the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
COURT ALERT (IRE)MID50.5%97.0held up without the late gear (4th of 4 on late speed), races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
EL GHUWAH (IRE)——102.8-
RED LEGSHELD-UP48.7%102.9the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1STAR VELOCITYMIDFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 2 · OR · Rossa Ryan / Ralph Beckett
MARKET 1.2 · the market rates it a 83% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−
83.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 11pts clear of the next, in form; the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
83.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 83
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 2 tries · beats market expectation (1.74)
Days since last run
8
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 104.12% (strong late)
Recent form · last 2 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ralph Beckett · 1384 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)90/46719.3%0.9816/6225.8%1.34
Over 5-6f trips29/18615.6%0.8515/6523.1%1.32
In fields of <=7 ✦84/31826.4%1.0234/11729.1%1.15
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days8/4816.7%0.92/238.7%0.7
Too few runners to read reliably
At Leicester (small sample)3/2810.7%0.560/50.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 84 at/around today's trip, clears the ~67.0 demand
The rider
Rossa Ryan · last 14 days: 15/66· at Leicester: A/E 1.23 (n92)· with this yard: A/E 1 (n666)
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 4
+0.75 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 44.2 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 4
+0.51s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 4
104.1%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 4
7.33 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-06-18 to 2026-07-14. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (83.0)Only 2 runs at this distanceStable cold this week — 2 wins from 17 runsRace-fit — ran 8 days agoSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“prominent, pushed along over 2f out, led final 100 yds”
#2COURT ALERT (IRE)MID
DRAW 1 · OR · Charles Bishop / Eve Johnson Houghton
MARKET drifting 5.1 → 6.4 · the market rates it a 16% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−
72.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 11pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; held up without the late gear (4th of 4 on late speed), races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front.
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Eve Johnson Houghton · 1046 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: off a TFR-FALLING figure trend
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3) ✦38/36410.4%1.0210/4621.7%1.46
On turf ✦64/57611.1%1.0627/18015.0%1.27
In fields of <=7 ✦29/17916.2%1.0612/5422.2%1.23
In Class 4-5 company ✦66/49713.3%1.1425/15116.6%1.21
Too few runners to read reliably
At Leicester (small sample)4/2218.2%1.540/60.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 83 at/around today's trip, clears the ~67.0 demand
The rider
Charles Bishop · last 14 days: 3/34· at Leicester: A/E 1.09 (n34)· with this yard: A/E 0.91 (n661)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 4
-0.07 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 4
+0.12s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 4
97.0%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 4
7.77 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
4 Oct 25Newmarket7fGood26thTrue41.1 +0.2482.3+0.23
23 Aug 25Newmarket6fGd/Frm2ndTrue41.1 +0.3698.9+0.51
10 Aug 25Haydock Park6fGd/Frm5thTrue39.8 -0.26105.5+0.05
Timed runs 2025-08-10 to 2026-07-04. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
EL GHUWAH (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 6.2L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+6.2L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Rated #2 in this field (72.0)Only 5 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 3 wins from 15 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“chased leaders after 1f, shaken up under 2f out, no extra final 100 yds”
#3RED LEGSHELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 4 · OR · Marco Ghiani / Martin Dunne
MARKET drifting 130 → 150 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 6+ / 1−
48.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 35pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
48.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 48
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 2 tries
Days since last run
41
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 102.94% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
drops 12 places on the course scale (YARMOUTH 18th → LEICESTER 30th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Recent form · last 2 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Martin Dunne · 277 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 9.9 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of <=73/319.7%0.893/1225.0%2.34
On turf5/895.6%0.63/1717.6%2.1
At this time of year (Q3)9/6414.1%1.011/616.7%1.99
Over 5-6f trips12/10111.9%1.046/4513.3%1.61
Coming back after 15 to 45 days10/10010.0%1.034/3112.9%1.54
In Class 4-5 company3/913.3%0.464/3511.4%1.44
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Leicester0/70.0%0.0—
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 41 is below the ~67.0 the race demands
The rider
Marco Ghiani · last 14 days: 6/39· at Leicester: A/E 0.71 (n60)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n4)· notable booking — a top rider for a yard he seldom rides for
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 4
-0.66 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 38.5 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph4th of 4
+0.52s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 4
102.9%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length4th of 4
7.22 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jun 26Yarmouth6fSoft7thSlow early37.7 -0.02103.5+0.51
1 Jun 26Windsor6fGd/Frm8thTrue39.3 -1.30102.4+0.52
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2026-06-01 to 2026-06-11. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Rated #3 in this field (48.0)Improving fast — last run rated 48, 13pts above his recent average of 35.0Only 2 runs at this distanceBOOKING UPGRADE — 12m top-10 jockey booked, only 2 ride(s) for this yard in 12m, after non-elite riders on the horse: an intent read (context only,…Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultRun-style and sectional profile are mismatched to how this course & distance is won
LTO comment
“slowly away, held up, pushed along 2f out, hampered 1f out”
#4EL GHUWAH (IRE)
DRAW 3 · OR · 9-5 · −3lb claim = 9-2 carried · Alex Jary / Joey Ramsden
MARKET drifting 80 → 100 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−
46.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 37pts off the top, prominent in the betting; the price is the only question.
FormLab Figure
46.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 46
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
18
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
— · finishing speed 102.8% (holds late)
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
5thClass 4 · 5.0f · rated 46
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Joey Ramsden · 163 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
On turf0/10.0%0.05/4012.5%1.19
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Leicester—0/40.0%0.0
Over 5-6f trips1/147.1%1.861/631.6%0.17
Coming back after 15 to 45 days1/147.1%0.91/551.8%0.17
In Class 4-5 company1/119.1%1.662/434.7%0.45
At this time of year (Q3)—1/175.9%0.51
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 41 is below the ~67.0 the race demands
The rider
Alex Jary · last 14 days: 1/17· at Leicester: A/E 0 (n5)· with this yard: A/E 1.67 (n5)
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 4
-0.28 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 41.0 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 4
+0.17s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 4
102.8%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 4
7.81 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-07-04 to 2026-07-04. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.