THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.7%winner in the projected 1–2–3 63.7%212 races · latest settled day: #1 7/20, top-3 12/20forensic read: #1 27.3% · top-3 63.3% (139)full record →
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
No confirmed early pace on the book, so this one may turn tactical. Winners here spend about 50% of their energy before the final two furlongs and quicken late. On the measured reads, LIVEINTHELIGHT leads on 77, 10pts clear of CARAWAY — flagged on our watch list. The case against the top pick: rated well above the mark it last won from. The shape danger is SEMPER FEMINA (IRE) — a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market agrees — it makes LIVEINTHELIGHT the 43% favourite.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 3
LIVEINTHELIGHT
OR 74 · David Egan / Ollie Sangster
MARKET drifting 1.97 → 2.32 · the market rates it a 43% chance
77.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (77.0)Race-fit — ran 8 days agoHistorically underestimated by the market
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 2
CARAWAY
OR 63 · Tom Marquand / William Haggas
MARKET backed 3.1 → 2.42 · the market rates it a 42% chance
67.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #2 in this field (67.0)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare result
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 4
SEMPER FEMINA (IRE)
OR 68 · Sean Levey / Richard Hannon
MARKET drifting 5.6 → 6.6 · the market rates it a 15% chance
49.3FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−Rated #3 in this field (49.3)Jockey goes well at this track (1.44x market expectation)Runs Held-Up — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1LIVEINTHELIGHTnet +5figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, FormLab watch flag − 5lb+ above last winning mark
2CARAWAYnet +4figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, energy in the winning band − clock FADE, 5lb+ above last winning mark
3SEMPER FEMINA (IRE)net +4race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here − clock FADE
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK
LIVEINTHELIGHT carries rated well above the mark it last won from. CARAWAY is the one to beat it — an edge LIVEINTHELIGHT lacks: backed since the morning.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (no confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by hold-up closers 33% · front-runners 33% (21 past C&D winners · no strong run-style bias). Stiff, uphill finish — a real test of stamina in the closing stages. Winners’ energy signature: 49.7% spent early (band 48.41–50.8%, 29 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~4 at halfway, 0.54s off the lead).
Where the pace is drawn · 3 runners · stalls 1–4
1234
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: LIVEINTHELIGHT is 1/3 on softer ground · CARAWAY is 0/3 on softer ground · SEMPER FEMINA (IRE) is 0/2 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
LIVEINTHELIGHTMID48.4%104.1the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
SEMPER FEMINA (IRE)HELD-UP49.6%104.1a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
CARAWAYHELD-UP48.7%103.9a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1LIVEINTHELIGHTMIDDOOR 2 · UNDER-RAISED WINNER
DRAW 3 · OR 74 · David Egan / Ollie Sangster
MARKET drifting 1.97 → 2.32 · the market rates it a 43% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
77.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 10pts clear of the next, flagged on our watch list; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
77.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 77
Official mark (OR)
74 · last won off 68
Record at today's distance
1 win from 2 tries · beats market expectation (2.5)
Days since last run
8
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.9s · faster than its field on the clock Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 104.12% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ollie Sangster · 711 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: keeping the same jockey
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Above their last winning mark9/4719.1%0.9217/6526.2%1.36
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
On turf ✦29/26011.2%0.89/1098.3%0.68
Coming back after 8 to 14 days11/5819.0%1.414/3611.1%0.75
Too few runners to read reliably
Over 11f+ trips (small sample)5/2917.2%1.094/850.0%3.13
At Leicester (small sample)0/60.0%0.00/30.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 77 at/around today's trip, clears the ~67.0 demand
The rider
David Egan · last 14 days: 6/25· at Leicester: A/E 0.73 (n51)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n21)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 3
+0.03 mph
About the level of its fields · 37.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 3
+0.16s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 3
104.1%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 3
6.69 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-09-05 to 2026-07-14. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
SEMPER FEMINA (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.1L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
30 Mar 26 · 11f · Slow — finished 5th vs 2nd, 2.1L behind
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-2.1L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
6lb above his last winning mark (74 today vs 68)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (77.0)Only 2 runs at this distanceStable cold this week — 1 wins from 11 runsRace-fit — ran 8 days agoHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“chased leader, led under 2f out, went clear entering final 1f, pushed out”
#2CARAWAYHELD-UP
DRAW 2 · OR 63 · Tom Marquand / William Haggas
MARKET backed 3.1 → 2.42 · the market rates it a 42% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−
67.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 10pts off the top, backed since the morning; the clock has it fading late.
FormLab Figure
67.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 68
Official mark (OR)
63 · last won off 58
Record at today's distance
1 win from 3 tries · beats market expectation (1.53)
Days since last run
41
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.7s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 103.9% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
William Haggas · 1585 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)134/54924.4%1.126/5810.3%0.48
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦138/63321.8%0.9827/15817.1%0.81
In fields of <=7 ✦94/35226.7%0.9125/11022.7%0.82
In Class 4-5 company164/66824.6%1.0326/14018.6%0.83
Too few runners to read reliably
At Leicester (small sample)6/2326.1%0.930/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 68 at/around today's trip, clears the ~67.0 demand
The rider
Tom Marquand · last 14 days: 2/41· at Leicester: A/E 0.89 (n57)· with this yard: A/E 1 (n859)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 3
-0.33 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 37.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 3
+0.24s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 3
103.9%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length2nd of 3
6.93 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jun 26Nottingham14fSoft3rdTrue35.8 +0.57103.1+0.48
16 May 26Thirsk12fGood1stSlow early38.6 -0.52108.4+0.10
8 May 26Wolverhampton12fStd6thTrue35.5 +0.00100.6+0.09
Timed runs 2025-09-27 to 2026-06-11. · 3 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs SEMPER FEMINA (IRE) (read through BOILERMAKER, BLACKISTHENEWBLACK) ≈ +0.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
5lb above his last winning mark (63 today vs 58)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #2 in this field (67.0)Only 3 runs at this distanceStable cold this week — 1 wins from 13 runsLost roughly 2.2 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultNEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.51 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“dropped out, headway early in straight, pushed along 3f out, took second 2f out, kept on”
#3SEMPER FEMINA (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 4 · OR 68 · Sean Levey / Richard Hannon
MARKET drifting 5.6 → 6.6 · the market rates it a 15% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−
49.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 27.7pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; the clock has it fading late.
FormLab Figure
49.3 · ranked #3 here · career best 75
Official mark (OR)
68 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 3 tries
Days since last run
33
Sectional clock
Last time: 5.7s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 104.11% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
drops 27 places on the course scale (GOODWOOD 3rd → LEICESTER 30th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard Hannon · 2095 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: jockey_named Pat Dobbs
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)56/6678.4%0.8112/7715.6%1.28
Too few runners to read reliably
At Leicester (small sample)1/166.2%0.90/70.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 75 at/around today's trip, clears the ~67.0 demand
The rider
Sean Levey · last 14 days: 4/33· at Leicester: A/E 1.44 (n27)· with this yard: A/E 1.05 (n809)
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 3
+0.21 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 37.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 3
+0.30s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 3
104.1%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length1st of 3
7.03 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
19 Jun 26Goodwood11fGood7th—37.8 +0.1895.5+0.13
12 Jun 26Goodwood9fSoft2ndTrue37.3 +0.04105.2+0.16
3 May 26Salisbury12fGood7thTrue38.0 -0.10105.8+0.13
30 Mar 26 · 11f · Slow — finished 2nd vs 5th, 2.1L ahead
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+2.1L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs CARAWAY (read through BOILERMAKER, BLACKISTHENEWBLACK) ≈ -0.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Rated #3 in this field (49.3)Only 3 runs at this distanceJockey goes well at this track (1.44x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Held-Up — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“slowly away, pushed along early, off pace, headway 3f out, soon beaten”