FORMLAB Race Report — Leicester 19:50

FORMLAB RACING

THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT

Leicester · 19:50

Class 6 · 10f · Good to Firm (Good in places)

GENERATED 2026-07-22 · 6 RUNNERS PROFILED

THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.7%winner in the projected 1–2–3 63.7%212 races · latest settled day: #1 7/20, top-3 12/20forensic read: #1 27.3% · top-3 63.3% (139)full record →

The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW

RICARDO PHILLIPS is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners here typically raced recently (100% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (73% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 4th at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 49% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, KAMEEL leads on 63, 1pts clear of HACHIMAN — one of the two strongest finishers here. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is RICARDO PHILLIPS — the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late. The market is line-ball — it just prefers RICARDO PHILLIPS at 27% to our top pick.

MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE

The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3

1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 1

KAMEEL

OR 55 · Ashley Lewis / Jessica Macey

MARKET 3.85 · the market rates it a 26% chance

63.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 6 todayThe top rating in this field (63.0)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market

2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 3

HACHIMAN

OR 54 · James Sullivan / Ruth Carr

MARKET backed 9.6 → 8.8 · the market rates it a 11% chance

62.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #2 in this field (62.0)Historically underestimated by the market

3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 5

RICARDO PHILLIPS

OR 55 · Rob Hornby / Henry Candy

MARKET drifting 3.3 → 3.75 · the market rates it a 27% chance

60.7 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD

Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #3 in this field (60.7)A course winner (1 from 3 here)Runs Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits

The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY

1KAMEELnet +5figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields

2HACHIMANnet +5figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), backed since morning, yard positive in today’s setup, FormLab watch flag − habitually slow away

3RICARDO PHILLIPSnet +5form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here

EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD

THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK

Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. HACHIMAN is the one to beat it — an edge KAMEEL lacks: backed since the morning.

Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.

Race ShapePACE × FINISH

one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.

What this course & distance favours

Won by front-runners 34% · midfield runners 25% (32 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Stiff, uphill finish — a real test of stamina in the closing stages. Winners’ energy signature: 49.05% spent early (band 48.44–50.17%, 47 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~4 at halfway, 0.42s off the lead). Only one confirmed early type — the likely leader can dictate, a real edge at a track this front/prominent-biased.

WHAT WINS THIS RACE

15 similar races at LEICESTER, 9.5-10.5f, all-aged handicaps, Class 5-7, Jun-Aug, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)

Winners here typically raced recently (100% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (73% from the first three favourites). 20% won last time out, 40% were placed 2nd-3rd.

Age

53% 3yo

27% 4yo

13% 5yo

Last ran

60% 15-45d

40% within 14d

Market

40% favourite

27% 4th+ in the market

20% 2nd favourite

LTO form

40% placed last time

40% unplaced last time

20% won last time

The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.

Where the pace is drawn · 6 runners · stalls 1–6

123456

Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is drawn HIGH (early types average stall 5.0 of 6, field average 3.5).

If the ground changes

Should it turn softer: KAMEEL is 0/2 on softer ground · HACHIMAN is unraced on softer ground · RICARDO PHILLIPS is 0/1 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).

RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup

KAMEEL MID 50.5% 103.0 a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it

RICARDO PHILLIPS FRONT 49.7% 104.0 the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late

HACHIMAN HELD-UP 50.7% 99.4 one-paced late — 4th of 6 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

TYPEFACE HELD-UP 50.8% 97.4 held up without the late gear (6th of 6 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

CLIPSHAM NOBLE (IRE) HELD-UP 49.4% 101.6 the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it

TURTON HELD-UP 50.6% 97.5 held up without the late gear (5th of 6 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

The early fight · measured

Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.

RICARDO PHILLIPSFRONTtypically ~1.8 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.07s off the field’s best

RICARDO PHILLIPS is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.

The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER

#1 KAMEEL MID

DRAW 1 · OR 55 · Ashley Lewis / Jessica Macey

MARKET 3.85 · the market rates it a 26% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−

63.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

Top on the figures, 1pts clear of the next, one of the two strongest finishers here; a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

63.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 76

Official mark (OR)

55 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 4 tries

Days since last run

18

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.4s slower than par — the result flattered it · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 103.02% (strong late)

Headgear

First-time visor

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

4thClass 6 · 10.0f · rated 634thClass 6 · 11.8f · rated 622ndClass 6 · 10.0f · rated 635thClass 6 · 12.1f · rated 599thClass 6 · 14.0f · rated 47

Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time

Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Jessica Macey · 421 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange

Signature angle: kept to the same class, with a new jockey booked, hidden_effort NORMAL-LTO, after a slow start last time, without a recent yard winner, as an exposed handicapper, mid-campaign

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In Class 6-7 company13/1339.8%0.890/440.0%0.0

At Leicester2/1513.3%1.060/120.0%0.0

Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦15/1688.9%0.861/621.6%0.18

On turf ✦14/1718.2%0.841/631.6%0.19

In fields of <=75/3912.8%0.91/185.6%0.49

Too few runners to read reliably

At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)7/987.1%0.721/714.3%0.76

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 76 at/around today's trip, clears the ~65.0 demand

The rider

Ashley Lewis · last 14 days: 7/28 · at Leicester: A/E 0 (n12) · with this yard: A/E 3.8 (n1)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields2nd of 6

+0.19 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 38.9 raw

Break · 0-20mph2nd of 6

+0.10s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed2nd of 6

103.0%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length6th of 6

6.70 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

4 Jul 26Leicester10fGd/Frm4th—38.7 -0.37100.7+0.00—

13 Jun 26Leicester11fGood4thTrue38.1 +0.65100.7+0.15

25 May 26Redcar10fGd/Frm2ndTrue39.0 +0.36104.2+0.11

4 May 26Beverley12fGd/Sft5thTrue37.2 +0.25101.5+0.07

6 Apr 26Wolverhampton13fStd9thTrue38.2 +0.1598.9+0.00

11 Mar 26Newcastle10fStd3rdTrue39.1 +0.12112.2+0.25

Timed runs 2026-03-11 to 2026-07-04. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

HACHIMAN · 1 meeting≈ 0.3L behind on today's terms · reverses

4 Jul 26 · 10f · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 3rd, 0.3L behind

THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — reverses vs 1 rival(s) met (-0.3L adj, 1 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs RICARDO PHILLIPS (read through CITY ESCAPE, NAUGHTY NIALL, THE PUG, MUHIB) ≈ +2.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs CLIPSHAM NOBLE (IRE) (read through CITY ESCAPE, CHARENCEY, JACK ANDREA, MUHIB) ≈ -0.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 6 todayThe top rating in this field (63.0)Only 4 runs at this distanceMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“mid-field, outpaced 3f out, headway final 1f, kept on”

#2 HACHIMAN HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 3 · OR 54 · James Sullivan / Ruth Carr

MARKET backed 9.6 → 8.8 · the market rates it a 11% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−

62.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

2nd on the figures, 1pts off the top, backed since the morning; habitually slow from the stalls.

FormLab Figure

62.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 74

Official mark (OR)

54 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 4 tries

Days since last run

18

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.0s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races midfield and fades · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 99.44% (one-paced late)

Headgear

First-time cheekpieces

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

3rdClass 6 · 10.0f · rated 6214thClass 6 · 8.0f · rated 479thClass 6 · 8.6f · rated 473rdClass 5 · 8.0f · rated 598thClass 5 · 8.1f · rated 45

Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Ruth Carr · 1262 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.6 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At this time of year (Q3)37/35310.5%1.14/2913.8%1.41

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦38/4638.2%0.9510/1516.6%0.68

In fields of <=719/12615.1%1.044/3910.3%0.74

On turf58/52111.1%1.2313/1657.9%0.77

Too few runners to read reliably

At Leicester (small sample)0/100.0%0.01/520.0%2.19

Over 9-10f trips (small sample)7/7010.0%1.531/175.9%0.81

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 76 at/around today's trip, clears the ~65.0 demand

The rider

James Sullivan · last 14 days: 1/13 · at Leicester: A/E 1.04 (n19) · with this yard: A/E 1.18 (n794)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields3rd of 6

+0.14 mph

About the level of its fields · 39.3 raw

Break · 0-20mph5th of 6

+0.63s

Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed4th of 6

99.4%

One-paced late

Stride length2nd of 6

7.23 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

4 Jul 26Leicester10fGd/Frm3rd—39.3 +0.29100.7+0.81—

14 Jun 26Doncaster7fGd/Sft14thTrue40.1 +0.44101.9+1.04

1 Jun 26Wolverhampton8fStd9thTrue37.9 +0.21102.7+0.35

18 May 26Redcar7fGd/Frm3rdTrue41.3 +0.6494.5+1.20

5 Apr 26Southwell8fStd8thTrue39.6 -0.34103.2+0.28

27 Mar 26Newcastle8fStd9thTrue37.0 -0.4293.6+0.08

Timed runs 2026-03-27 to 2026-07-04. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

TYPEFACE · 1 meeting≈ 13.2L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

14 Jul 25 · 8.1f · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 8th, 13.2L ahead

KAMEEL · 1 meeting≈ 0.3L ahead on today's terms · confirms

4 Jul 26 · 10f · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 4th, 0.3L ahead

THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (+3.3L adj, 2 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs CLIPSHAM NOBLE (IRE) (read through CITY ESCAPE, CHARENCEY, HASHTAGNOTIONS, SCENARIO) ≈ +2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs RICARDO PHILLIPS (read through CITY ESCAPE, SCEPTIC) ≈ +1.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #2 in this field (62.0)Improving fast — last run rated 62, 10pts above his recent average of 52.0Only 4 runs at this distanceLost roughly 3.6 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market

LTO comment

“slowly away, rear, ridden over 2f out, ridden and headway 1f out, switched final 1f, ran on”

#3 RICARDO PHILLIPS FRONT

DRAW 5 · OR 55 · Rob Hornby / Henry Candy

MARKET drifting 3.3 → 3.75 · the market rates it a 27% chance

Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−

60.7 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

3rd on the figures, 2.3pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late.

FormLab Figure

60.7 · ranked #3 here · career best 61

Official mark (OR)

55 · last won off 54

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 2 tries

Days since last run

261

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races front-runner

Run style & finish

Front-runner · finishing speed 104.02% (strong late)

Course scale · class context

drops 14 places on the course scale (KEMPTON PARK 16th → LEICESTER 30th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

3rdClass 6 · 12.0f · rated 609thClass 6 · 11.9f · rated —1stClass 6 · 11.8f · rated 612ndClass 6 · 11.8f · rated 615thClass 6 · 10.0f · rated 58

Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Henry Candy · 216 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

Over 9-10f trips4/2814.3%1.12/1118.2%1.88

Coming back after 180 days+2/728.6%3.62/1513.3%1.76

In fields of <=74/2714.8%1.192/1020.0%1.28

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In Class 6-7 company3/339.1%0.740/230.0%0.0

At Leicester1/1010.0%0.710/70.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 63 is below the ~65.0 the race demands

The rider

Rob Hornby · last 14 days: 5/40 · at Leicester: A/E 0.9 (n51) · with this yard: A/E 2.69 (n7)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields4th of 6

-0.18 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 38.8 raw

Break · 0-20mph1st of 6

+0.07s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed1st of 6

104.0%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length3rd of 6

7.05 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

1 Jul 26Epsom Downs12fGood (Good To Firm In Places)3rd—39.2 +0.26112.5+0.43—

3 Nov 25Kempton Park11fStd3rdTrue38.5 +0.07105.2+0.13

30 Jul 25Leicester11fGd/Frm1stFast early38.9 -0.4897.2+0.00

17 Jul 25Leicester11fGd/Frm2ndTrue37.4 -0.21107.5-0.12

5 Jul 25Leicester10fGd/Frm5thTrue39.4 -0.18101.6+0.00

6 Jun 25Bath10fGd/Frm3rdTrue38.1 -0.54100.3-0.04

Timed runs 2025-06-06 to 2026-07-01. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

Read through a common rival

vs CLIPSHAM NOBLE (IRE) (read through CITY ESCAPE, GALACTIC GLOW, SANSANETTI, BOTH OF US) ≈ -2.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs KAMEEL (read through CITY ESCAPE, NAUGHTY NIALL, THE PUG, MUHIB) ≈ -2.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs TYPEFACE (read through ALYARA, CELEBRATING ETHEL) ≈ -2.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs HACHIMAN (read through CITY ESCAPE, SCEPTIC) ≈ -1.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #3 in this field (60.7)Only 2 runs at this distanceLost roughly 1.9 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionReturns from 261 days offHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 3 here)Runs Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“mid-field, headway 2f out, challenged over 1f out, no extra late on”

#4 TYPEFACE HELD-UP

DRAW 6 · OR 51 · Edward Greatrex / Ian Williams

MARKET backed 6.6 → 5.5 · the market rates it a 18% chance

56.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

4th on the figures, 7pts off the top, backed since the morning; tends to burn early and empty out.

FormLab Figure

56.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 64

Official mark (OR)

51 · last won off 47

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 2 tries

Days since last run

29

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 97.42% (one-paced late)

Headgear

First-time cheekpieces and tongue strap · yard 8% with first-time gear (A/E 0.81)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

3rdClass 6 · 8.0f · rated 564thClass 6 · 8.0f · rated 546thClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 487thClass 5 · 8.0f · rated 302ndClass 6 · 8.0f · rated 63

Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Christian Williams

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 67 at/around today's trip, clears the ~65.0 demand

The rider

Edward Greatrex · last 14 days: 0/16 · at Leicester: A/E 1.14 (n24) · with this yard: A/E 1.48 (n95)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields1st of 6

+0.32 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 39.6 raw

Break · 0-20mph3rd of 6

+0.34s

Slow away in 3 of 5 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed6th of 6

97.4%

One-paced late

Stride length4th of 6

7.02 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

23 Jun 26Ffos Las8fGood3rdTrue39.9 +0.53102.4+0.09

28 May 26Yarmouth8fGd/Frm4thTrue39.5 +0.48102.2+0.35

16 May 26Doncaster7fGd/Sft6thTrue40.0 +0.1597.0—

13 Dec 25Newcastle8fSlow7thTrue39.7 +0.1690.5+0.06

9 Dec 25Newcastle8fSlow2ndFast early39.1 +0.5294.8+0.53

22 Nov 25Newcastle8fSlow2ndTrue39.1 +0.0597.6+0.65

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.62slow2f+0.92slow3f+1.16par4f+1.39fast5f+1.23fast6f+1.04par7f+0.79slow1m+0.44slow

Timed runs 2025-11-22 to 2026-06-23. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

HACHIMAN · 1 meeting≈ 13.2L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

14 Jul 25 · 8.1f · Gd/Frm — finished 8th vs 3rd, 13.2L behind

THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-13.2L adj, 1 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs RICARDO PHILLIPS (read through ALYARA, CELEBRATING ETHEL) ≈ +2.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs CLIPSHAM NOBLE (IRE) (read through MOORETOWN LAD, PERFECT PAROLE, AL SHABAB, LAW DEGREE) ≈ -1.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

4lb above his last winning mark (51 today vs 47)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayOnly 2 runs at this distanceHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price

LTO comment

“mid-field, headway 2f out, kept on”

#5 CLIPSHAM NOBLE (IRE) HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 4 · OR 49 · Liam Wright / Charlie Clover

MARKET drifting 6.4 → 7.2 · the market rates it a 14% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−

53.3 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

5th on the figures, 9.7pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; the clock has it fading late.

FormLab Figure

53.3 · ranked #5 here · career best 55

Official mark (OR)

49 · last won off 46

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 8 tries

Days since last run

15

Sectional clock

Last time: 3.6s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races midfield-closer

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 101.6% (holds late)

Course scale · class context

drops 10 places on the course scale (PONTEFRACT 20th → LEICESTER 30th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests

Headgear

Cheekpieces

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

6thClass 6 · 12.0f · rated 524thClass 6 · 11.8f · rated 531stClass 6 · 11.8f · rated 554thClass 6 · 10.0f · rated 525thClass 6 · 8.0f · rated 48

Career sheet · last 18 months · 24 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Charlie Clover · 171 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

Over 9-10f trips3/1030.0%1.535/1241.7%2.01

In fields of <=72/1612.5%0.737/1838.9%1.27

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At this time of year (Q3)6/3915.4%0.991/147.1%0.3

Coming back after 15 to 45 days8/5714.0%1.033/2711.1%0.72

On turf11/5420.4%1.36/4513.3%0.75

Too few runners to read reliably

At Leicester (small sample)0/10.0%0.01/333.3%3.17

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 56 is below the ~65.0 the race demands

The rider

Liam Wright · last 14 days: 1/6 · at Leicester: A/E 0.74 (n15) · with this yard: A/E 1.7 (n15)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields5th of 6

-0.25 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 37.0 raw

Break · 0-20mph6th of 6

+0.75s

Slow away in 5 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed3rd of 6

101.6%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length5th of 6

6.90 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

7 Jul 26Pontefract12fGood6thFast early38.3 -1.4695.7+1.02

25 Jun 26Leicester11fGd/Frm4thTrue38.1 +0.28105.8+1.12

25 May 26Leicester11fFirm1stTrue39.2 +0.89100.7+0.62

9 May 26Leicester10fGd/Frm4thTrue37.0 -0.61102.8+0.92

29 Apr 26Bath8fFirm5thTrue39.0 -0.10102.8+0.66

18 Apr 26Nottingham8fGood6thTrue37.7 -0.50101.8+0.15

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+1.66slow2f+2.26par3f+2.13very fast4f+2.20fast5f+2.06fast6f+1.56very fast7f+1.05fast1m+0.97very slow1m 1f+1.13very slow1m 2f+1.61very slow1m 3f+1.20slow1m 4f+1.14very slow

Timed runs 2026-04-18 to 2026-07-07. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

Read through a common rival

vs RICARDO PHILLIPS (read through CITY ESCAPE, GALACTIC GLOW, SANSANETTI, BOTH OF US) ≈ +2.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs HACHIMAN (read through CITY ESCAPE, CHARENCEY, HASHTAGNOTIONS, SCENARIO) ≈ -2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs TYPEFACE (read through MOORETOWN LAD, PERFECT PAROLE, AL SHABAB, LAW DEGREE) ≈ +1.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs KAMEEL (read through CITY ESCAPE, CHARENCEY, JACK ANDREA, MUHIB) ≈ +0.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

3lb above his last winning mark (49 today vs 46)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayLost roughly 4.6 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 6 here)

LTO comment

“awkward start, behind, progress from home turn, never better than mid-field”

#6 TURTON HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 2 · OR 51 · Marco Ghiani / Tony Carroll

MARKET drifting 21 → 28 · the market rates it a 4% chance

Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−

47.7 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

6th on the figures, 15.3pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; tends to burn early and empty out.

FormLab Figure

47.7 · ranked #6 here · career best 54

Official mark (OR)

51 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 1 tries

Days since last run

29

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.3s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races held-up (one-paced)

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 97.51% (one-paced late)

Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

5thClass 6 · 9.9f · rated 439thClass 4 · 7.6f · rated —6thClass 4 · 8.3f · rated 548thClass 5 · 7.1f · rated 46

Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Tony Carroll · 2392 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange

Signature angle: at Bath, at this time of year (Q2), on turf, off a TFR-FALLING figure trend, with the mark MARK-FLAT, with a CLAIM-7 claimer up

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

On turf ✦97/70713.7%1.247/23520.0%1.41

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At this time of year (Q3) ✦51/49310.3%0.956/5710.5%0.83

Too few runners to read reliably

At Leicester (small sample)9/6214.5%1.573/1520.0%1.7

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 54 is below the ~65.0 the race demands

The rider

Marco Ghiani · last 14 days: 6/39 · at Leicester: A/E 0.71 (n60) · with this yard: A/E 1.18 (n87)

Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields6th of 6

-0.69 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 38.3 raw

Break · 0-20mph4th of 6

+0.42s

Slow away in 3 of 4 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed5th of 6

97.5%

One-paced late

Stride length1st of 6

7.47 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

23 Jun 26Beverley9fGd/Frm5thTrue38.3 +0.0297.8+0.51

6 Jun 26Lingfield7fSoft9thTrue37.6 -1.6187.1+0.53

31 May 26Nottingham8fGood6thTrue37.4 -0.88105.3+0.15

23 Apr 26Southwell7fStd8thTrue38.4 -0.2899.8+0.51

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.75slow2f+0.89par3f+0.81par4f+0.69slow5f+0.83par6f+1.17slow7f+1.00par1m+1.06par1m 1f+1.13par1m 2f+1.43slow

Timed runs 2026-04-23 to 2026-06-23. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Only 1 run at this distanceStable in form this week — 3 wins from 14 runsLost roughly 2.3 lengths at the start last timeCut 2lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina question

LTO comment

“slowly away”