FORMLAB Race Report — Leicester 20:20

FORMLAB RACING

THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT

Leicester · 20:20

Class 4 · 6f · Good to Firm (Good in places)

GENERATED 2026-07-22 · 6 RUNNERS PROFILED

THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.7%winner in the projected 1–2–3 63.7%212 races · latest settled day: #1 7/20, top-3 12/20forensic read: #1 27.3% · top-3 63.3% (139)full record →

The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW

Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners here typically raced recently (88% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (50% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 3rd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 51% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, ZEN DIVA leads on 90, 4pts clear of COTAI BELLE (IRE) — one of the two strongest finishers here. The case against the top pick: rated well above the mark it last won from. The shape danger is MISS NIGHTCAP — the quickest of today's early types, without over-committing — and holds on late. The market agrees — it makes ZEN DIVA the 36% favourite.

MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE

The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3

1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 2

ZEN DIVA

OR 81 · Rossa Ryan / Ralph Beckett

MARKET 2.76 · the market rates it a 36% chance

90.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD

Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (90.0)Race-fit — ran 11 days agoRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 3

COTAI BELLE (IRE)

OR 80 · Ethan Tindall / Richard & Peter Fahey

MARKET drifting 4.5 → 4.9 · the market rates it a 20% chance

86.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD

Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #2 in this field (86.0)Proven over the trip (10 tries, beats market expectation at 1.39)Historically underestimated by the market

3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 4

MISS NIGHTCAP

OR 79 · Alistair Rawlinson / Edward Smyth-Osbourne

MARKET backed 8.2 → 6.8 · the market rates it a 15% chance

83.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−Rated #3 in this field (83.0)Runs Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY

1MISS NIGHTCAPnet +9race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, quickest early type, top-2 speed vs its fields, runs the dominant winning style here

2ZEN DIVAnet +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, runs the dominant winning style here, yard hot, FormLab watch flag − 5lb+ above last winning mark

3COTAI BELLE (IRE)net +4figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, proven at trip − burns early and empties

EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD

THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK

ZEN DIVA carries rated well above the mark it last won from. MISS NIGHTCAP is the one to beat it — an edge ZEN DIVA lacks: backed since the morning.

Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.

Worth A Second Look

These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.

AMELIA'S JOY FIGURE #5

Michael Herrington's runners in Class 4-5 company win 17.3% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Michael Herrington's runners coming back after 15 to 45 days win 14.2% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.

Race ShapePACE × FINISH

contested early pace likely (5 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.

What this course & distance favours

Won by front-runners 45% · prominent racers 30% (47 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Stiff, uphill finish — a real test of stamina in the closing stages. Draw: Straight course: HIGH best on good/quick. LOW strongly favoured when soft. Round-course draw modest. Winners’ energy signature: 50.88% spent early (band 50.17–51.4%, 64 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~3 at halfway, 0.14s off the lead). Today 5 confirmed early types will contest the lead — at a track that rewards prominent racing a hot pace can compromise the pure front-runners, handing it to a prominent horse that sustains or a well-drawn closer.

WHAT WINS THIS RACE

16 similar races at LEICESTER, 5.5-6.5f, all-aged handicaps, Class 3-5, May-Sep, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)

Winners here typically raced recently (88% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (50% from the first three favourites). 25% won last time out, 38% were placed 2nd-3rd.

Age

31% 4yo

25% 6yo+

25% 5yo

Last ran

69% 15-45d

19% within 14d

12% 91d+

Market

50% 4th+ in the market

25% favourite

19% 2nd favourite

LTO form

38% placed last time

38% unplaced last time

25% won last time

The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.

Where the pace is drawn · 6 runners · stalls 1–6

123456

Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–6).

If the ground changes

Should it turn softer: ZEN DIVA is 0/2 on softer ground · COTAI BELLE (IRE) is 1/4 on softer ground · MISS NIGHTCAP is unraced on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).

RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup

ZEN DIVA PROMINENT 49.1% 101.9 concedes ~1.5L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, without over-committing — and holds on late

COTAI BELLE (IRE) PROMINENT 51.8% 96.2 just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f

MISS NIGHTCAP PROMINENT 49.4% 101.2 the quickest of today's early types, without over-committing — and holds on late

AFRAJ (IRE) MID 48.9% 100.6 the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it

ROMANTIC TWILIGHT PROMINENT 50.1% 99.7 just behind the quickest early pair — presses, without over-committing — but holds one pace late

AMELIA'S JOY PROMINENT 49.5% 99.7 a match for the quickest early, without over-committing — but holds one pace late

The early fight · measured

Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.

MISS NIGHTCAPPROMINENTtypically ~1.6 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.11s off the field’s best

AMELIA'S JOYPROMINENTtypically ~1.2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.06s off the field’s best

ROMANTIC TWILIGHTPROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.12s off the field’s best

COTAI BELLE (IRE)PROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.13s off the field’s best

ZEN DIVAPROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.11s off the field’s best

nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.

The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER

#1 ZEN DIVA PROMINENT DOOR 2 · UNDER-RAISED WINNER

DRAW 2 · OR 81 · Rossa Ryan / Ralph Beckett

MARKET 2.76 · the market rates it a 36% chance

Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−

90.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

Top on the figures, 4pts clear of the next, one of the two strongest finishers here; rated well above the mark it last won from.

FormLab Figure

90.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 90

Official mark (OR)

81 · last won off 75

Record at today's distance

2 wins from 5 tries · in line with the market (1.03)

Days since last run

11

Sectional clock

Last time: beat the class par by 2.6s
Usually races prominent-closer

Run style & finish

Prominent · finishing speed 101.94% (holds late)

Course scale · class context

drops 8 places on the course scale (SALISBURY 22nd → LEICESTER 30th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

1stClass 5 · 6.0f · rated 901stClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 793rdClass 4 · 5.0f · rated 742ndClass 5 · 6.0f · rated 684thClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 74

Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time

Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Ralph Beckett · 1384 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.5 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At this time of year (Q3)90/46719.3%0.9816/6225.8%1.34

Over 5-6f trips29/18615.6%0.8515/6523.1%1.32

In fields of <=7 ✦84/31826.4%1.0234/11729.1%1.15

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

Coming back after 8 to 14 days8/4816.7%0.92/238.7%0.7

Too few runners to read reliably

At Leicester (small sample)3/2810.7%0.560/50.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 94 at/around today's trip, clears the ~86.0 demand

The rider

Rossa Ryan · last 14 days: 15/66 · at Leicester: A/E 1.23 (n92) · with this yard: A/E 1 (n666)

Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields3rd of 6

+0.07 mph

About the level of its fields · 40.6 raw

Break · 0-20mph2nd of 6

+0.11s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed1st of 6

101.9%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length3rd of 6

7.31 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

11 Jul 26Salisbury6fGd/Frm1stTrue39.9 1/4106.2—

17 May 26Ripon6fGd/Frm1stTrue41.6 +0.2297.2—

2 Oct 25Nottingham5fGd/Sft3rdTrue40.8 +0.15101.4+0.00

11 Sep 25Chelmsford City6fSlow2ndTrue40.9 -0.03103.5+0.13

28 Aug 25Newbury6fGd/Frm4thTrue39.8 -0.06101.3+0.20

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1fledvery slow2fledvery slow3fledpar4fledpar5fledvery fast6fledvery fast

Timed runs 2025-08-28 to 2026-07-11. · 2 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

ROMANTIC TWILIGHT · 1 meeting≈ 10.6L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

11 Sep 25 · 6f · Slow — finished 2nd vs 10th, 10.55L ahead

THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+10.6L adj, 1 meeting(s))

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

6lb above his last winning mark (81 today vs 75)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (90.0)Improving fast — last run rated 90, 9pts above his recent average of 81.0Only 5 runs at this distanceStable cold this week — 2 wins from 17 runsRace-fit — ran 11 days agoRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“chased leader, shaken up 2f out, led over 1f out, drew clear final 1f, comfortably”

#2 COTAI BELLE (IRE) PROMINENT

DRAW 3 · OR 80 · Ethan Tindall / Richard & Peter Fahey

MARKET drifting 4.5 → 4.9 · the market rates it a 20% chance

Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−

86.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

2nd on the figures, 4pts off the top, prominent in the betting; tends to burn early and empty out.

FormLab Figure

86.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 86

Official mark (OR)

80 · last won off 77

Record at today's distance

2 wins from 10 tries · beats market expectation (1.39)

Days since last run

13

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races midfield

Run style & finish

Prominent · finishing speed 96.21% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

drops 5 places on the course scale (CARLISLE 25th → LEICESTER 30th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

2ndClass 4 · 5.8f · rated 862ndClass 2 · 6.0f · rated 842ndClass 3 · 6.0f · rated 828thClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 489thClass 1 · 6.0f · rated 75

Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Richard & Peter Fahey · 384 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.5 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At Leicester—1/911.1%1.67

Above their last winning mark—18/12414.5%1.52

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In fields of <=7—8/839.6%0.68

Coming back after 8 to 14 days—4/626.5%0.74

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 86 at/around today's trip, clears the ~86.0 demand

The rider

Ethan Tindall · last 14 days: 1/13 · at Leicester: A/E 0 (n3) · with this yard: A/E 0.47 (n45)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields5th of 6

-0.05 mph

About the level of its fields · 41.5 raw

Break · 0-20mph5th of 6

+0.13s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed6th of 6

96.2%

One-paced late

Stride length1st of 6

7.49 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

9 Jul 26Carlisle5fGd/Frm2ndTrue41.9 +0.1498.6+0.07

12 Jun 26York6fGood2ndTrue41.4 +0.05100.1+0.00

17 May 26Ripon6fGood2ndFast early42.3 -0.2995.9—

16 Apr 26Ripon6fGd/Sft8thTrue41.1 -0.0498.9+0.26

4 Oct 25Redcar5fGd/Sft9thTrue41.1 -0.4095.4+0.23

21 Aug 25York6fGd/Frm21stTrue41.4 +0.2388.3+0.11

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.40par2f+0.52par3f+0.61par4f+0.40par5f+0.19slow6f+0.15par

Timed runs 2025-08-21 to 2026-07-09. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

Read through a common rival

vs ROMANTIC TWILIGHT (read through GENEROUS RASCAL, KESTA) ≈ -2.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

3lb above his last winning mark (80 today vs 77)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #2 in this field (86.0)Proven over the trip (10 tries, beats market expectation at 1.39)Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“handy, under pressure over 2f out, stayed on”

#3 MISS NIGHTCAP PROMINENT

DRAW 4 · OR 79 · Alistair Rawlinson / Edward Smyth-Osbourne

MARKET backed 8.2 → 6.8 · the market rates it a 15% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−

83.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

3rd on the figures, 7pts off the top, backed since the morning; the quickest of today's early types, without over-committing — and holds on late.

FormLab Figure

83.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 83

Official mark (OR)

79 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

1 win from 3 tries · beats market expectation (2.63)

Days since last run

24

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class · best on the clock in its race
Usually races front-runner

Run style & finish

Prominent · finishing speed 101.21% (holds late)

Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

1stClass 5 · 7.2f · rated 832ndClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 722ndClass 4 · 6.1f · rated 72

Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Edward Smyth-Osbourne · 130 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 11.8 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

Over 5-6f trips4/2119.0%1.710/150.0%0.0

At this time of year (Q3)6/4314.0%1.70/60.0%0.0

On turf7/4316.3%1.760/280.0%0.0

In fields of <=74/1428.6%1.870/70.0%0.0

In Class 4-5 company10/5817.2%2.051/303.3%0.43

Coming back after 15 to 45 days9/4918.4%1.831/224.5%0.52

Too few runners to read reliably

At Leicester (small sample)0/40.0%0.00/20.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 79 is below the ~86.0 the race demands

The rider

Alistair Rawlinson · last 14 days: 0/7 · at Leicester: A/E 0.68 (n40) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n23)

Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields1st of 6

+0.44 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 41.2 raw

Break · 0-20mph3rd of 6

+0.11s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed2nd of 6

101.2%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length2nd of 6

7.35 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

28 Jun 26Wolverhampton7fStd1stTrue39.0 +0.70103.8+0.00

1 Jun 26Newbury6fFirm2ndTrue40.9 -0.1499.0+0.02

7 May 26Windsor6fGd/Frm2ndTrue41.6 +0.75100.8+0.31

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1fledvery fast2fledvery slow3fledslow4fledpar5fledpar6fledfast7fledpar

Timed runs 2026-05-07 to 2026-06-28. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayRated #3 in this field (83.0)Only 3 runs at this distanceRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“soon led, effort over 1f out, ridden out”

#4 AFRAJ (IRE) MID FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 1 · OR 77 · William Buick / John & Thady Gosden

MARKET drifting 6.8 → 7.6 · the market rates it a 13% chance

Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−

79.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

4th on the figures, 11pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; habitually slow from the stalls.

FormLab Figure

79.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 79

Official mark (OR)

77 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

1 win from 2 tries · beats market expectation (4.35)

Days since last run

27

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.5s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 100.56% (holds late)

Course scale · class context

drops 26 places on the course scale (NEWMARKET 4th → LEICESTER 30th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests

Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

3rdClass 4 · 7.0f · rated 793rdClass 4 · 8.0f · rated 671stClass 5 · 7.0f · rated 70

Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

John & Thady Gosden · 1247 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.0 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At this time of year (Q3)72/36519.7%0.9611/2250.0%1.91

Too few runners to read reliably

At Leicester (small sample)3/1225.0%1.122/2100.0%5.4

Over 5-6f trips (small sample)8/5614.3%1.00/110.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 79 is below the ~86.0 the race demands

The rider

William Buick · last 14 days: 13/34 · at Leicester: A/E 0.87 (n21) · with this yard: A/E 1.11 (n146)

Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields2nd of 6

+0.29 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 38.9 raw

Break · 0-20mph6th of 6

+0.40s

Slow away in 2 of 3 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed3rd of 6

100.6%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length6th of 6

7.06 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

25 Jun 26Newmarket7fGd/Frm3rdSlow early40.2 +0.21103.4+0.69

5 Jun 26Goodwood8fGd/Sft3rdFast early38.1 +0.2695.1-0.03

26 Nov 25Chelmsford City7fSlow1stTrue38.4 +0.41103.2+0.55

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.36slow2f+0.35slow3f+0.33slow4f+0.41slow5f+0.35par6f+0.09fast7f+0.31fast

Timed runs 2025-11-26 to 2026-06-25. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayOnly 2 runs at this distanceLost roughly 3.1 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare result

LTO comment

“steadied start, shaken up over 2f out, challenged 1f out, not quicken”

#5 AMELIA'S JOY PROMINENT

DRAW 6 · OR 68 · David Probert / Michael Herrington

MARKET drifting 6.4 → 7 · the market rates it a 14% chance

Yard suits today’s conditions · 7+ / 0−

76.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

5th on the figures, 14pts off the top, proven at the trip; rated well above the mark it last won from.

FormLab Figure

76.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 76

Official mark (OR)

68 · last won off 63

Record at today's distance

3 wins from 11 tries · beats market expectation (3.12)

Days since last run

18

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Prominent · finishing speed 99.66% (one-paced late)

Headgear

First-time cheekpieces

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

1stClass 5 · 6.0f · rated 762ndClass 5 · 6.9f · rated 725thClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 634thClass 5 · 7.0f · rated 691stClass 6 · 7.2f · rated 69

Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Michael Herrington · 679 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.5 on the exchange

Signature angle: over 7-8f trips, coming back after 8 to 14 days, with a new jockey booked, switching jockey after a defeat, off a judgement-rated last figure, without a sectional tell last time, after a slow start last time, without a recent yard winner, mid-campaign

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At this time of year (Q3)17/13812.3%1.145/1533.3%1.62

On turf ✦23/18512.4%1.1714/7319.2%1.51

In Class 4-5 company ✦28/20113.9%1.3314/8117.3%1.4

Above their last winning mark ✦31/20315.3%1.319/10019.0%1.39

In fields of <=7 ✦11/5619.6%1.278/2729.6%1.37

Over 5-6f trips16/1958.2%0.8314/7718.2%1.31

Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦29/25011.6%1.2317/12014.2%1.17

Too few runners to read reliably

At Leicester (small sample)2/1811.1%1.022/450.0%2.36

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 76 is below the ~86.0 the race demands

The rider

David Probert · last 14 days: 8/46 · at Leicester: A/E 1.49 (n59) · with this yard: A/E 2.2 (n27)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields4th of 6

-0.02 mph

About the level of its fields · 40.3 raw

Break · 0-20mph1st of 6

+0.06s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed4th of 6

99.7%

One-paced late

Stride length5th of 6

7.30 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

4 Jul 26Leicester6fGd/Frm1st—42.4 -0.1498.1-0.07—

15 Jun 26Carlisle6fGood2ndFast early38.2 -0.0696.1-0.03

6 Jun 26Doncaster7fGd/Frm5thTrue39.1 -0.43100.6+0.17

21 May 26Catterick Bridge7fGood4th—41.2 +0.1696.3+0.11

10 Apr 26Wolverhampton7fStd1stSlow early40.0 +0.77105.2+0.15

28 Mar 26Southwell7fStd7thTrue38.5 -0.44101.6+0.00

Timed runs 2026-03-28 to 2026-07-04. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

5lb above his last winning mark (68 today vs 63)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayProven over the trip (11 tries, beats market expectation at 3.12)Jockey goes well at this track (1.49x market expectation)Historically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 1 here)Runs Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“pressed leader, went on over 1f out, under pressure soon after, headed final 100 yds”

#6 ROMANTIC TWILIGHT PROMINENT

DRAW 5 · OR 73 · Rob Hornby / William Stone

MARKET drifting 50 → 65 · the market rates it a 2% chance

Yard mixed — leans for · 6+ / 1−

51 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

6th on the figures, 39pts off the top, proven at the trip; just behind the quickest early pair — presses, without over-committing — but holds one pace late.

FormLab Figure

51 · ranked #6 here · career best 76

Official mark (OR)

73 · last won off 73

Record at today's distance

1 win from 9 tries · beats market expectation (3.62)

Days since last run

32

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.9s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races midfield

Run style & finish

Prominent · finishing speed 99.65% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

drops 26 places on the course scale (NEWMARKET 4th → LEICESTER 30th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

9thClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 4213thClass 4 · 6.1f · rated 496thClass 4 · 7.0f · rated 621stClass 5 · 6.0f · rated 7610thClass 5 · 6.0f · rated 29

Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

William Stone · 181 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.8 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At Leicester1/214.8%0.451/425.0%3.02

At this time of year (Q3)10/5219.2%1.732/633.3%2.86

Coming back after 15 to 45 days7/779.1%0.924/1526.7%2.52

Over 5-6f trips5/3514.3%1.493/1323.1%2.35

In fields of <=70/210.0%0.01/714.3%2.2

On turf11/8912.4%1.182/219.5%1.5

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In Class 4-5 company7/719.9%1.310/170.0%0.0

Too few runners to read reliably

Back at their last winning mark (small sample)0/20.0%0.01/250.0%2.57

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 78 is below the ~86.0 the race demands

The rider

Rob Hornby · last 14 days: 5/40 · at Leicester: A/E 0.9 (n51) · with this yard: A/E 3.72 (n2)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields6th of 6

-0.13 mph

About the level of its fields · 41.1 raw

Break · 0-20mph4th of 6

+0.12s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed5th of 6

99.7%

One-paced late

Stride length4th of 6

7.30 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

20 Jun 26Newmarket6fGd/Frm9thFast early42.0 -0.3998.7+0.14

23 May 26Windsor6fGd/Frm13th—43.0 +0.4296.8+0.35

13 Oct 25Yarmouth6fGd/Frm1stTrue41.2 +0.0099.6-0.03

11 Sep 25Chelmsford City6fSlow10thTrue40.9 -0.0799.7+0.14

15 Aug 25Newbury6fGd/Frm5thTrue40.1 -0.65102.7+0.02

1 Aug 25Newmarket6fGd/Sft2ndTrue39.5 -0.07100.5+0.13

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.34fast2f+0.40fast3f+0.80par4f+1.18slow5f+1.63very slow6f+2.25very slow

Timed runs 2025-08-01 to 2026-06-20. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

ZEN DIVA · 1 meeting≈ 10.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

11 Sep 25 · 6f · Slow — finished 10th vs 2nd, 10.55L behind

THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-10.6L adj, 1 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs COTAI BELLE (IRE) (read through GENEROUS RASCAL, KESTA) ≈ +2.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayProven over the trip (9 tries, beats market expectation at 3.62)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market

LTO comment

“mid-division, weakened over 2f out”