FORMLAB Race Report — Leicester 20:50

FORMLAB RACING

THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT

Leicester · 20:50

Class 6 · 6f · Good to Firm (Good in places)

GENERATED 2026-07-22 · 8 RUNNERS PROFILED

THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.7%winner in the projected 1–2–3 63.7%212 races · latest settled day: #1 7/20, top-3 12/20forensic read: #1 27.3% · top-3 63.3% (139)full record →

The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW

Measured on their own past openings, THE TUNGUSKA EVENT (IRE) should reach the front first — roughly 1.4 lengths faster to the 2f marker than the next early type. Winners here typically raced recently (83% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (43% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 3rd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 51% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, MAXIMUM VELOCITY (IRE) leads on 69, 4pts clear of THE TUNGUSKA EVENT (IRE) and PIMENTEL (both 65) — backed since the morning. The case against the top pick: rated well above the mark it last won from. The market sees it differently, making THE TUNGUSKA EVENT (IRE) the 20% favourite — a horse our figures rate 2nd.

MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE

The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3

1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 3

MAXIMUM VELOCITY (IRE)

OR 62 · Alex Jary / Nigel Tinkler

MARKET backed 9.6 → 7.8 · the market rates it a 13% chance

69.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayThe top rating in this field (69.0)Proven over the trip (10 tries, beats market expectation at 1.61)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare result

2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 5

THE TUNGUSKA EVENT (IRE)

OR 64 · Jack Nicholls / John & Sean Quinn

MARKET drifting 4.2 → 4.9 · the market rates it a 20% chance

65 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD

Yard suits today’s conditions · 6+ / 0−Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayRated #2 in this field (65)Proven over the trip (12 tries, beats market expectation at 1.87)

3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 6

PIMENTEL

OR 57 · Ashley Lewis / Marcus Tregoning

MARKET 6 · the market rates it a 16% chance

65.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #3 in this field (65.0)Proven over the trip (9 tries, beats market expectation at 1.56)Historically underestimated by the market

The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY

1THE TUNGUSKA EVENT (IRE)net +11figure top-2, drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, quickest early type, sharp from the stalls, energy in the winning band

2MAXIMUM VELOCITY (IRE)net +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), backed since morning, top-2 speed vs its fields, sharp from the stalls, energy in the winning band, proven at trip − 5lb+ above last winning mark

3PIMENTELnet +6race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, sharp from the stalls, proven at trip

EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD

THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK

MAXIMUM VELOCITY (IRE) carries rated well above the mark it last won from. THE TUNGUSKA EVENT (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge MAXIMUM VELOCITY (IRE) lacks: the quickest away of the early types.

Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.

Worth A Second Look

These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.

GOLDENSTATEOFMIND (IRE) FIGURE #4

drops in class and returns quickly — the two angles our testing shows genuinely tighten a profile.

LANDSLIDE FIGURE #5

drops in class and returns quickly — the two angles our testing shows genuinely tighten a profile.

CRAFTY BLUE (IRE) FIGURE #6

drops in class and returns quickly — the two angles our testing shows genuinely tighten a profile.

APEX STAR (IRE) FIGURE #7

William Knight's runners on turf win 16.5% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.

Race ShapePACE × FINISH

contested early pace likely (3 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.

What this course & distance favours

Won by front-runners 45% · prominent racers 30% (47 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Stiff, uphill finish — a real test of stamina in the closing stages. Draw: Straight course: HIGH best on good/quick. LOW strongly favoured when soft. Round-course draw modest. Winners’ energy signature: 50.88% spent early (band 50.17–51.4%, 64 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~3 at halfway, 0.14s off the lead).

WHAT WINS THIS RACE

23 similar races at LEICESTER, 5.0-7.0f, 3yo handicaps, Class 5-7, May-Sep, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)

Winners here typically raced recently (83% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (43% from the first three favourites). 0% won last time out, 35% were placed 2nd-3rd.

Last ran

65% 15-45d

17% within 14d

13% 91d+

Market

57% 4th+ in the market

17% 2nd favourite

13% 3rd favourite

LTO form

61% unplaced last time

35% placed last time

4% first run

The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.

Where the pace is drawn · 8 runners · stalls 1–8

12345678

Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–8).

If the ground changes

Should it turn softer: MAXIMUM VELOCITY (IRE) is 0/1 on softer ground · THE TUNGUSKA EVENT (IRE) is 0/4 on softer ground · PIMENTEL is unraced on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).

RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup

PORTACLOY (IRE) PROMINENT 50.5% 99.4 just behind the quickest early pair — presses, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls

CRAFTY BLUE (IRE) HELD-UP 52.6% 98.8 the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

THE TUNGUSKA EVENT (IRE) FRONT 51.1% 98.5 the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls

GOLDENSTATEOFMIND (IRE) HELD-UP 50.5% 97.4 held up without the late gear (7th of 8 on late speed), races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front

MAXIMUM VELOCITY (IRE) MID 50.9% 97.6 held up without the late gear (6th of 8 on late speed), races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front

LANDSLIDE MID 50.9% 97.2 held up without the late gear (8th of 8 on late speed), races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front

PIMENTEL HELD-UP 49.8% 100.3 the best late speed in a one-paced field, saving plenty for the finish — needs them to stop in front

APEX STAR (IRE) PROMINENT 50.2% 98.3 concedes ~2.0L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, at the tempo that wins here — but empties in the final 2f · sharp from the stalls

The early fight · measured

Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.

THE TUNGUSKA EVENT (IRE)FRONTtypically ~2.7 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest

PORTACLOY (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.3 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest

APEX STAR (IRE)PROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest

measured on their own past openings, THE TUNGUSKA EVENT (IRE) should reach the front first — roughly 1.4 lengths faster to the 2f marker than the next early type · context only — the shape never selects.

The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER

#1 MAXIMUM VELOCITY (IRE) MID

DRAW 3 · OR 62 · Alex Jary / Nigel Tinkler

MARKET backed 9.6 → 7.8 · the market rates it a 13% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−

69.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

Top on the figures, 4pts clear of the next, backed since the morning; rated well above the mark it last won from.

FormLab Figure

69.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 69

Official mark (OR)

62 · last won off 57

Record at today's distance

1 win from 10 tries · beats market expectation (1.61)

Days since last run

26

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 97.59% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

drops 20 places on the course scale (DONCASTER 10th → LEICESTER 30th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests

Headgear

First-time cheekpieces

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

3rdClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 699thClass 5 · 7.1f · rated 121stClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 6610thClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 382ndClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 60

Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time

Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Nigel Tinkler · 926 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.8 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

In Class 6-7 company ✦32/27911.5%1.179/1018.9%1.18

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

Above their last winning mark21/16912.4%1.093/694.3%0.43

In fields of 8-11 ✦28/3677.6%0.885/1074.7%0.57

At this time of year (Q3)24/3008.0%0.93/397.7%0.69

Too few runners to read reliably

At Leicester (small sample)0/110.0%0.00/30.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 67 at/around today's trip, clears the ~64 demand

The rider

Alex Jary · last 14 days: 1/17 · at Leicester: A/E 0 (n5) · with this yard: A/E 1.15 (n348)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields4th of 8

+0.05 mph

About the level of its fields · 41.2 raw

Break · 0-20mph2nd of 8

-0.04s

Quicker away than the field · fast away 1 of 5

Finish · closing speed6th of 8

97.6%

One-paced late

Stride length1st of 8

7.83 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

26 Jun 26Doncaster6fGd/Frm3rdTrue41.2 -0.2699.8—

5 Jun 26Musselburgh7fGood9thTrue40.6 +0.3293.5-0.92

18 May 26Redcar7fGd/Frm1stTrue40.2 -0.0199.4+0.27

25 Apr 26Doncaster7fGd/Frm10thTrue40.3 -0.0294.8+0.22

13 Apr 26Leicester7fGood2ndTrue41.7 +0.2395.8+0.07

26 Mar 26Southwell7fStd9thTrue38.6 +0.06102.2+0.16

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1fledfast2fledpar3f+0.06slow4f+0.09par5f+0.05par6f+0.26par

Timed runs 2026-03-26 to 2026-06-26. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

Read through a common rival

vs THE TUNGUSKA EVENT (IRE) (read through COME ON OVER, FULL GAS, ANTIQUE BLUE, BALDOSA) ≈ -4.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs APEX STAR (IRE) (read through TICKETTOTHESTARS, FULLSTOP, CRECIENTE, CASTLEKEELY) ≈ -1.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

5lb above his last winning mark (62 today vs 57)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayThe top rating in this field (69.0)Proven over the trip (10 tries, beats market expectation at 1.61)Stable cold this week — 0 wins from 15 runsMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance

LTO comment

“prominent, outpaced 2f out, stayed on final 1f”

#2 THE TUNGUSKA EVENT (IRE) FRONT

DRAW 5 · OR 64 · Jack Nicholls / John & Sean Quinn

MARKET drifting 4.2 → 4.9 · the market rates it a 20% chance

Yard suits today’s conditions · 6+ / 0−

65 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

2nd on the figures, 4pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late, sharp from the stalls.

FormLab Figure

65 · ranked #2 here · career best 73

Official mark (OR)

64 · last won off 62

Record at today's distance

3 wins from 12 tries · beats market expectation (1.87)

Days since last run

27

Sectional clock

Last time: 0.8s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races front-runner (cooked late)

Run style & finish

Front-runner · finishing speed 98.52% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

drops 17 places on the course scale (NEWCASTLE 13th → LEICESTER 30th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests

Headgear

Visor

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

6thClass 5 · 5.0f · rated 513rdClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 711stClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 732ndClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 681stClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 64

Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

John & Sean Quinn · 784 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.6 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

In Class 6-7 company17/10915.6%1.338/3721.6%1.69

Above their last winning mark17/13912.2%0.868/4816.7%1.69

Over 5-6f trips35/32810.7%0.9713/9314.0%1.64

At this time of year (Q3)28/27810.1%0.913/2015.0%1.53

On turf46/4859.5%0.8411/10410.6%1.32

In fields of 8-1129/3328.7%0.788/7011.4%1.32

Too few runners to read reliably

At Leicester (small sample)1/911.1%1.260/10.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 71 at/around today's trip, clears the ~64 demand

The rider

Jack Nicholls · last 14 days: 4/22 · at Leicester: A/E 1.38 (n12) · with this yard: A/E 1.06 (n4)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields1st of 8

+0.13 mph

About the level of its fields · 41.0 raw

Break · 0-20mph1st of 8

-0.04s

Quicker away than the field · fast away 4 of 4

Finish · closing speed4th of 8

98.5%

One-paced late

Stride length5th of 8

7.15 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

25 Jun 26Newcastle5fSlow6thTrue42.7 +0.2396.5—

14 Jun 26Doncaster6fGood3rdTrue41.5 -0.21101.2-0.14

21 May 26Catterick Bridge5fGood1st—40.0 +0.00103.9+0.00

7 Apr 26Pontefract6fGd/Sft2ndTrue38.9 +0.6495.2+0.00

10 Feb 26Newcastle6fStd1stFast early41.9 -0.0194.9+0.00

22 Jan 26Newcastle5fStd4thTrue—99.4—

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1fledvery fast2fledpar3f+0.02slow4f+0.52very slow5f+0.91very slow

Timed runs 2026-01-22 to 2026-06-25. · 1 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 2 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

Read through a common rival

vs APEX STAR (IRE) (read through MISS MAGIC DRAGON, ROGUE REBELLION, TICKETTOTHESTARS) ≈ -5.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs PIMENTEL (read through HALLANDALE BEACH, ATHENIAN SPIRIT, SHE'S CRAFTY) ≈ +4.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs MAXIMUM VELOCITY (IRE) (read through COME ON OVER, FULL GAS, ANTIQUE BLUE, BALDOSA) ≈ +4.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayRated #2 in this field (65)Proven over the trip (12 tries, beats market expectation at 1.87)Jockey goes well at this track (1.38x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“led, headed over 1f out, weakened”

#3 PIMENTEL HELD-UP

DRAW 6 · OR 57 · Ashley Lewis / Marcus Tregoning

MARKET 6 · the market rates it a 16% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−

65.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

3rd on the figures, 4pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; the best late speed in a one-paced field, saving plenty for the finish — needs them to stop in front.

FormLab Figure

65.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 65

Official mark (OR)

57 · last won off 54

Record at today's distance

1 win from 9 tries · beats market expectation (1.56)

Days since last run

22

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.7s)
Usually races midfield-closer

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 100.33% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 6 places on the course scale (BRIGHTON 36th → LEICESTER 30th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Headgear

Cheekpieces

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

3rdClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 652ndClass 6 · 6.1f · rated 636thClass 6 · 7.2f · rated 532ndClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 571stClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 58

Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Marcus Tregoning · 295 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.8 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In Class 6-7 company4/3611.1%1.010/170.0%0.0

Over 5-6f trips1/254.0%0.640/90.0%0.0

At this time of year (Q3)9/1187.6%0.660/60.0%0.0

In fields of 8-118/1316.1%0.680/340.0%0.0

Coming back after 15 to 45 days12/11110.8%0.881/303.3%0.29

On turf ✦16/1739.2%0.82/454.4%0.39

Too few runners to read reliably

At Leicester (small sample)2/540.0%2.060/30.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 63 is below the ~64 the race demands

The rider

Ashley Lewis · last 14 days: 7/28 · at Leicester: A/E 0 (n12) · with this yard: A/E 0.73 (n18)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields3rd of 8

+0.08 mph

About the level of its fields · 41.6 raw

Break · 0-20mph3rd of 8

-0.02s

Quicker away than the field · fast away 2 of 5

Finish · closing speed1st of 8

100.3%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length6th of 8

7.14 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

30 Jun 26Brighton6fGood3rdSlow early41.5 +0.1599.8-0.11

27 Jun 26Chepstow6fGd/Frm2ndTrue41.7 -0.20100.2+0.15

12 Jan 26Wolverhampton7fStd6thTrue38.6 -0.09103.8+0.11

6 Oct 25Yarmouth7fGd/Frm2ndTrue39.3 +0.1899.1+0.02

29 Sep 25Brighton6fGood1stTrue41.7 +0.3896.4-0.25

22 Sep 25Wolverhampton7fSlow5thSlow early—102.6—

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.24slow2f+0.31par3f+0.24par4f+0.21slow5f+0.19par6f+0.24fast7f+0.31fast

Timed runs 2025-09-22 to 2026-06-30. · 1 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

Read through a common rival

vs PORTACLOY (IRE) (read through WHO IS ALICE, CORNICHE GIRL) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs THE TUNGUSKA EVENT (IRE) (read through HALLANDALE BEACH, ATHENIAN SPIRIT, SHE'S CRAFTY) ≈ -4.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs APEX STAR (IRE) (read through LUNA BEAUX, MOLLY MAC, PRANCY PEER) ≈ +4.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

3lb above his last winning mark (57 today vs 54)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #3 in this field (65.0)Proven over the trip (9 tries, beats market expectation at 1.56)Historically underestimated by the market

LTO comment

“in touch, shaken up over 2f out, chased leader 1f out, kept on”

#4 GOLDENSTATEOFMIND (IRE) HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 1 · OR 63 · Rossa Ryan / David Loughnane

MARKET backed 25 → 20 · the market rates it a 5% chance

Yard suits today’s conditions · 5+ / 0−

59.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

4th on the figures, 10pts off the top, backed since the morning; the clock has it fading late.

FormLab Figure

59.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 70

Official mark (OR)

63 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 5 tries

Days since last run

36

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.2s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races held-up (one-paced)

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 97.4% (one-paced late)

Headgear

First-time blinkers

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

8thClass 5 · 6.1f · rated 597thClass 5 · 5.0f · rated 27thClass 5 · 6.1f · rated 326thClass 2 · 6.1f · rated 522ndClass 5 · 5.0f · rated 70

Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

David Loughnane · 750 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

In Class 6-7 company14/13810.1%0.878/3423.5%1.8

At this time of year (Q3)9/1735.2%0.624/1921.1%1.73

Coming back after 15 to 45 days22/2419.1%0.9312/9612.5%1.28

On turf22/2618.4%0.9112/9213.0%1.24

In fields of 8-1129/3348.7%0.8912/10511.4%1.17

Too few runners to read reliably

At Leicester (small sample)3/1816.7%1.652/633.3%1.54

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 70 at/around today's trip, clears the ~64 demand

The rider

Rossa Ryan · last 14 days: 15/66 · at Leicester: A/E 1.23 (n92) · with this yard: A/E 1.03 (n147)

Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields7th of 8

-0.15 mph

About the level of its fields · 40.5 raw

Break · 0-20mph6th of 8

+0.29s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed7th of 8

97.4%

One-paced late

Stride length8th of 8

7.04 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

16 Jun 26Wolverhampton6fStd8thTrue40.7 -0.2399.3+0.51

2 Jun 26Pontefract5fGood7thFast early40.0 -0.4794.5+0.11

17 Apr 26Wolverhampton6fSlow7thTrue40.1 +0.32100.4+0.55

31 May 25Chester6fGood6thTrue39.7 -0.3894.9+0.19

3 May 25Thirsk5fGood2ndFast early41.8 -0.0197.8+0.09

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.93slow2f+1.02par3f+0.83par4f+1.05par5f+1.04par6f+1.04very slow

Timed runs 2025-05-03 to 2026-06-16. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Drops in class todayImproving fast — last run rated 59, 13pts above his recent average of 45.5Only 5 runs at this distanceLost roughly 2.3 lengths at the start last timeCut 3lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price

LTO comment

“slowly away, always behind”

#5 LANDSLIDE MID FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 2 · OR 59 · Kaiya Fraser / Oliver Cole

MARKET 9.8 · the market rates it a 10% chance

Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−

53.3 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

5th on the figures, 15.7pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; habitually slow from the stalls.

FormLab Figure

53.3 · ranked #5 here · career best 65

Official mark (OR)

59 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 3 tries

Days since last run

20

Sectional clock

Last time: 2.0s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races midfield and fades

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 97.21% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

drops 14 places on the course scale (KEMPTON PARK 16th → LEICESTER 30th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests

Headgear

First-time cheekpieces and hood

Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

8thClass 4 · 7.0f · rated 515thClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 6510thClass 4 · 7.0f · rated 44

Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Oliver Cole · 148 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.5 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At this time of year (Q3)1/303.3%0.283/1421.4%2.21

In fields of 8-113/378.1%0.656/4114.6%1.38

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In Class 6-7 company0/100.0%0.00/40.0%0.0

Too few runners to read reliably

At Leicester (small sample)0/30.0%0.01/333.3%3.23

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 63 is below the ~64 the race demands

The rider

Kaiya Fraser · last 14 days: 6/19 · at Leicester: A/E 0.46 (n17) · with this yard: A/E 9.8 (n2)

Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields2nd of 8

+0.12 mph

About the level of its fields · 42.8 raw

Break · 0-20mph8th of 8

+0.57s

Slow away in 2 of 3 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed8th of 8

97.2%

One-paced late

Stride length2nd of 8

7.57 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

2 Jul 26Kempton Park7fSlow8thTrue40.0 +0.2099.2+0.59

21 Jun 26Brighton5fGd/Frm5thTrue42.8 -0.1197.9+0.25

13 Apr 26Leicester7fGood10thTrue40.8 +0.2894.6+0.88

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.85fast2f+0.61fast3f+0.65par4f+0.64par5f+1.03very slow6f+1.51very slow7f+1.81very slow

Timed runs 2026-04-13 to 2026-07-02. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Drops in class todayOnly 3 runs at this distanceLost roughly 2.6 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina question

LTO comment

“went left strt, rear, hung left soon after start, weakened 2f out”

#6 CRAFTY BLUE (IRE) HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 8 · OR 65 · Sean Levey / Richard Hannon

MARKET drifting 8.6 → 9.4 · the market rates it a 10% chance

Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−

43.3 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

6th on the figures, 25.7pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; tends to burn early and empty out.

FormLab Figure

43.3 · ranked #6 here · career best 71

Official mark (OR)

65 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

1 win from 2 tries · beats market expectation (5.66)

Days since last run

33

Sectional clock

Last time: 2.6s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races held-up closer

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 98.82% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

drops 26 places on the course scale (NEWMARKET 4th → LEICESTER 30th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests

Headgear

First-time cheekpieces · yard 14% with first-time gear (A/E 1.36)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

9thClass 5 · 8.0f · rated 399thClass 5 · 8.0f · rated —9thClass 5 · 8.0f · rated 201stClass 5 · 7.1f · rated 717thClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 59

Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Richard Hannon · 2095 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange

Signature angle: jockey_named Pat Dobbs

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

In Class 6-7 company20/17511.4%1.036/2623.1%2.24

At this time of year (Q3)56/6678.4%0.8112/7715.6%1.28

Too few runners to read reliably

At Leicester (small sample)1/166.2%0.90/70.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 73 at/around today's trip, clears the ~64 demand

The rider

Sean Levey · last 14 days: 4/33 · at Leicester: A/E 1.44 (n27) · with this yard: A/E 1.05 (n809)

Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields8th of 8

-0.17 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 39.5 raw

Break · 0-20mph7th of 8

+0.45s

Slow away in 3 of 4 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed3rd of 8

98.8%

One-paced late

Stride length3rd of 8

7.27 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

19 Jun 26Newmarket8fGood9thTrue39.4 -0.3892.5+0.54

6 May 26Kempton Park8fSlow9thTrue37.8 -0.39102.0+0.16

17 Apr 26Bath8fGd/Sft9thTrue39.0 +0.1892.0+0.50

29 Sep 25Southwell7fStd1stTrue39.0 +0.11103.3—

28 Aug 25Newbury6fGd/Frm7thTrue39.5 -0.36104.2+0.59

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.76slow2f+0.73fast3f+0.72fast4f+0.64par5f+0.73par6f+0.93slow7f+1.08very slow1m+3.06very slow

Timed runs 2025-08-28 to 2026-06-19. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayOnly 2 runs at this distanceJockey goes well at this track (1.44x market expectation)Lost roughly 2.4 lengths at the start last timeCut 5lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formHistorically underestimated by the market

LTO comment

“always behind”

#7 APEX STAR (IRE) PROMINENT

DRAW 4 · OR 57 · Marco Ghiani / William Knight

MARKET 5.5 · the market rates it a 18% chance

Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−

39 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

7th on the figures, 30pts off the top, a yard in form; concedes ~2.0L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, at the tempo that wins here — but empties in the final 2f, sharp from the stalls.

FormLab Figure

39 · ranked #7 here · career best 63

Official mark (OR)

57 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 8 tries

Days since last run

23

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.4s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races prominent

Run style & finish

Prominent · finishing speed 98.32% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

drops 19 places on the course scale (WINDSOR 11th → LEICESTER 30th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

11thClass 6 · 5.1f · rated 192ndClass 6 · 5.7f · rated 637thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 353rdClass 6 · 7.2f · rated 613rdClass 6 · 7.2f · rated 60

Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

William Knight · 557 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.5 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

Over 5-6f trips ✦13/9513.7%1.459/3228.1%1.8

On turf ✦38/27713.7%1.2114/8516.5%1.28

At this time of year (Q3)28/20513.7%1.135/2420.8%1.24

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In Class 6-7 company18/9518.9%1.15/4511.1%0.57

In fields of 8-1133/21915.1%1.237/6410.9%0.7

Too few runners to read reliably

At Leicester (small sample)0/80.0%0.00/20.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 63 is below the ~64 the race demands

The rider

Marco Ghiani · last 14 days: 6/39 · at Leicester: A/E 0.71 (n60) · with this yard: A/E 0.76 (n77)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields6th of 8

-0.06 mph

About the level of its fields · 40.0 raw

Break · 0-20mph5th of 8

+0.05s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed5th of 8

98.3%

One-paced late

Stride length4th of 8

7.19 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

29 Jun 26Windsor5fGd/Frm11thTrue42.9 -0.2897.4—

5 Jun 26Bath5fGood2ndTrue40.1 +0.1397.9-0.01

14 May 26Salisbury6fGood7thFast early38.3 -0.1493.1+0.26

5 May 26Wolverhampton7fStd3rdTrue39.2 -0.05100.1+0.01

9 Apr 26Wolverhampton7fStd3rdTrue39.6 +0.00101.8+0.01

23 Oct 25Chelmsford City6fSlow5thTrue38.9 +0.0099.6+0.00

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1fledpar2f+0.05par3f+0.19slow4f+0.77very slow5f+1.95very slow

Timed runs 2025-10-23 to 2026-06-29. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

Read through a common rival

vs THE TUNGUSKA EVENT (IRE) (read through MISS MAGIC DRAGON, ROGUE REBELLION, TICKETTOTHESTARS) ≈ +5.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs PIMENTEL (read through LUNA BEAUX, MOLLY MAC, PRANCY PEER) ≈ -4.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs MAXIMUM VELOCITY (IRE) (read through TICKETTOTHESTARS, FULLSTOP, CRECIENTE, CASTLEKEELY) ≈ +1.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“soon led, pushed along 2f out, headed 1f out, no extra final ½f”

#8 PORTACLOY (IRE) PROMINENT

DRAW 7 · OR 65 · Tom Marquand / Daniel & Claire Kubler

MARKET 14 · the market rates it a 7% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−

35.3 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

8th on the figures, 33.7pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; just behind the quickest early pair — presses, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late, sharp from the stalls.

FormLab Figure

35.3 · ranked #8 here · career best 72

Official mark (OR)

65 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

1 win from 6 tries · beats market expectation (1.12)

Days since last run

83

Sectional clock

Last time: 2.1s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races front-runner (cooked late)

Run style & finish

Prominent · finishing speed 99.36% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

drops 14 places on the course scale (KEMPTON PARK 16th → LEICESTER 30th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

6thClass 5 · 6.0f · rated 358thClass 5 · 6.1f · rated 5111thClass 5 · 6.0f · rated 201stClass 5 · 6.0f · rated 723rdClass 5 · 6.1f · rated 62

Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Daniel & Claire Kubler · 545 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.0 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At this time of year (Q3)39/20419.1%1.263/1127.3%1.37

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In fields of 8-1139/23416.7%1.12/326.2%0.45

Over 5-6f trips12/9013.3%0.981/128.3%0.53

Too few runners to read reliably

In Class 6-7 company (small sample)14/8416.7%0.980/90.0%0.0

Coming back after 46 to 90 days (small sample)5/2025.0%1.861/520.0%0.91

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 69 at/around today's trip, clears the ~64 demand

The rider

Tom Marquand · last 14 days: 2/41 · at Leicester: A/E 0.89 (n57) · with this yard: A/E 0.84 (n11)

Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields5th of 8

+0.00 mph

About the level of its fields · 40.2 raw

Break · 0-20mph4th of 8

+0.01s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed2nd of 8

99.4%

One-paced late

Stride length7th of 8

7.08 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

30 Apr 26Kempton Park6fSlow6thSlow early39.0 -0.64104.9-0.03

28 Oct 25Wolverhampton6fSlow8thTrue40.0 +0.0197.2+0.04

23 Sep 25Lingfield6fStd11thTrue39.5 -0.3896.3+0.02

3 Sep 25Lingfield6fStd1stTrue41.3 +0.55102.7+0.00

21 Jul 25Windsor6fGood4thTrue41.1 +0.4695.7—

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.46slow2f+0.28par3f+0.33slow4f+0.08par5f+0.61slow6f+1.93very slow

Timed runs 2025-07-21 to 2026-04-30. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

Read through a common rival

vs PIMENTEL (read through WHO IS ALICE, CORNICHE GIRL) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“awkward start, in touch, dropped away early in straight”