THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.7%winner in the projected 1–2–3 63.7%212 races · latest settled day: #1 7/20, top-3 12/20forensic read: #1 27.3% · top-3 63.3% (139)full record →
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
EMMA'S LETTER is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners here typically raced recently (76% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (67% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 4th at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 47% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, ALMEKAREM (IRE) leads on 80, 3.7pts clear of WHAT'S THE PLAN — dropping in class. The case against the top pick: its sectional profile is out of date and the clock has it fading late. The shape danger is EMMA'S LETTER — the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late. The market sees it differently, making WHAT'S THE PLAN the 51% favourite — a horse our figures rate 2nd.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 4
ALMEKAREM (IRE)
OR 74 · Luke Morris / Sir Mark Prescott Bt
MARKET 7.2 · the market rates it a 14% chance
80FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayThe top rating in this field (80)Historically underestimated by the market
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 3
WHAT'S THE PLAN
OR 74 · Daniel Muscutt / James Fanshawe
MARKET 1.97 · the market rates it a 51% chance
76.3FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 3+ / 0−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #2 in this field (76.3)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultA course winner (1 from 1 here)
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 1
EMMA'S LETTER
OR 68 · Billy Loughnane / Ed Dunlop
MARKET 5.6 · the market rates it a 18% chance
73.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #3 in this field (73.0)Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1EMMA'S LETTERnet +9race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip
2DON PABLO COLINAnet +5race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, runs the dominant winning style here − burns early and empties
3WHAT'S THE PLANnet +4figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, yard hot
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK
ALMEKAREM (IRE) carries its sectional profile is out of date and the clock has it fading late. EMMA'S LETTER is the one to beat it — an edge ALMEKAREM (IRE) lacks: runs the winning energy pattern for the track.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Flat, very short straight (~200yd / ~1f) — a sprint home finish. Winners’ energy signature: 47.21% spent early (band 46.46–48.29%, 145 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~4 at halfway, 0.38s off the lead).
WHAT WINS THIS RACE
21 similar races at LINGFIELD PARK, 9.5-10.5f, all-aged handicaps, Class 4-6, Jun-Aug, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (76% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (67% from the first three favourites). 0% won last time out, 29% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
52% 4yo
33% 6yo+
10% 5yo
Last ran
52% 15-45d
24% within 14d
14% 46-90d
Market
33% 4th+ in the market
24% 3rd favourite
24% favourite
LTO form
67% unplaced last time
29% placed last time
5% first run
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 4 runners · stalls 1–4
1234
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: ALMEKAREM (IRE) is 0/1 on softer ground · WHAT'S THE PLAN is unraced on softer ground · EMMA'S LETTER is 0/1 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
ALMEKAREM (IRE)HELD-UP48.4%103.4a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
WHAT'S THE PLANMID49.7%102.4solid late gains (4th of 4 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
EMMA'S LETTERPROMINENT48.1%105.0the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late
DON PABLO COLINAMID50.6%103.9a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
EMMA'S LETTERPROMINENTtypically ~1.1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.10s off the field’s best
EMMA'S LETTER is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1ALMEKAREM (IRE)HELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 4 · OR 74 · Luke Morris / Sir Mark Prescott Bt
MARKET 7.2 · the market rates it a 14% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−
80FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 3.7pts clear of the next, dropping in class; its sectional profile is out of date.
FormLab Figure
80 · ranked #1 here · career best 83
Official mark (OR)
74 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 3 tries · beats market expectation (1.57)
Days since last run
216
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.0s slower than par — the result flattered it · faster than its field on the clock Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 103.43% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads. · last rated run 216 days ago
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Sir Mark Prescott Bt · 535 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Lingfield Park4/3212.5%0.795/1926.3%1.19
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 9-10f trips10/5617.9%0.962/1612.5%0.63
In Class 4-5 company60/29920.1%1.098/7410.8%0.64
On turf52/21524.2%1.066/3915.4%0.66
In fields of <=746/16228.4%1.088/3622.2%0.76
At this time of year (Q3)52/20625.2%1.23/1816.7%0.8
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 85 at/around today's trip, clears the ~78.3 demand
The rider
Luke Morris · last 14 days: 3/40· at Lingfield Park: A/E 1.06 (n455)· with this yard: A/E 0.91 (n436)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 4
+0.03 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 4
+0.27s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 4
103.4%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 4
7.12 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
18 Dec 25Chelmsford City10fSlow4thTrue37.7 -0.32103.7+0.54
5 Dec 25Newcastle10fStd/Slow6thTrue39.1 -0.15109.0+0.19
21 Nov 25Southwell8fStd3rdTrue38.9 +0.00103.4+0.12
29 Oct 25Kempton Park8fStd9thSlow early40.6 -0.20109.5+0.46
6 Oct 25Yarmouth8fGd/Frm12thTrue40.4 +0.4988.5+0.26
Timed runs 2025-09-02 to 2025-12-18 · last timed run 216 days ago — the profile is out of date. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayThe top rating in this field (80)Only 3 runs at this distanceLost roughly 2.4 lengths at the start last timeCut 2lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionReturns from 216 days offHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“steadied start, dropped out, effort over 2f out, plugged on”
#2WHAT'S THE PLANMID
DRAW 3 · OR 74 · Daniel Muscutt / James Fanshawe
MARKET 1.97 · the market rates it a 51% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 3+ / 0−
76.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 3.7pts off the top, a yard in form; solid late gains (4th of 4 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
76.3 · ranked #2 here · career best 81
Official mark (OR)
74 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 2 tries
Days since last run
34
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.7s) Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.44% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
drops 9 places on the course scale (RIPON 14th → LINGFIELD PARK 23rd) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
James Fanshawe · 823 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 9-10f trips10/8312.0%0.6211/3432.4%1.68
At this time of year (Q3)38/24615.4%0.978/2630.8%1.41
On turf33/28911.4%0.826/10325.2%1.31
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 83 at/around today's trip, clears the ~78.3 demand
The rider
Daniel Muscutt · last 14 days: 1/14· at Lingfield Park: A/E 1.06 (n239)· with this yard: A/E 1.03 (n390)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 4
-0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 4
+0.10s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 4
102.4%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 4
7.41 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
18 Jun 26Ripon9fGood4thTrue39.2 -0.14102.8—
23 May 26Salisbury9fGood3rd—39.1 +0.21102.0+0.02
2 Apr 26Southwell8fStd4thTrue38.4 +0.00101.7+0.10
22 Oct 25Kempton Park8fStd4thTrue39.1 +0.00101.7+0.00
4 Oct 25Newmarket7fGood20thTrue39.8 -1.0197.2+0.56
3 Sep 25Lingfield7fStd1stTrue41.2 +0.40109.3-0.16
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-09-03 to 2026-06-18. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #2 in this field (76.3)Only 2 runs at this distanceMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 1 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“waited with, headway when badly hampered under 2f out, kept on”
#3EMMA'S LETTERPROMINENT
DRAW 1 · OR 68 · Billy Loughnane / Ed Dunlop
MARKET 5.6 · the market rates it a 18% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−
73.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 7pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late.
FormLab Figure
73.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 73
Official mark (OR)
68 · last won off 65
Record at today's distance
1 win from 5 tries · beats market expectation (2.29)
Days since last run
20
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.6s · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 105.01% (strong late)
Headgear
Blinkers · yard 9% with first-time gear (A/E 1)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ed Dunlop · 896 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: without a sectional tell last time
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)33/27612.0%1.124/2416.7%1.75
In fields of <=7 ✦33/16719.8%1.1911/4027.5%1.33
On turf ✦41/37510.9%1.0415/10214.7%1.23
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days43/35212.2%1.157/808.8%0.81
Too few runners to read reliably
At Lingfield Park (small sample)5/677.5%0.663/1323.1%1.42
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 76 is below the ~78.3 the race demands
The rider
Billy Loughnane · last 14 days: 15/57· at Lingfield Park: A/E 0.94 (n306)· with this yard: A/E 0.65 (n44)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 4
+0.13 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 4
+0.10s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 4
105.0%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length2nd of 4
7.25 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-12-08 to 2026-07-02. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (68 today vs 65)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #3 in this field (73.0)Improving fast — last run rated 73, 12pts above his recent average of 61.0Only 5 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“chased leader, went on over 2f out, closed down final 100 yds, always holding on”
#4DON PABLO COLINAMID
DRAW 2 · OR 62 · Oisin Murphy / George Baker
MARKET 5.7 · the market rates it a 18% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−
67.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 13pts off the top, in form; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
67.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 67
Official mark (OR)
62 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
13
Sectional clock
Last time: 7.2s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races prominent · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 103.91% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
drops 17 places on the course scale (EPSOM DOWNS 6th → LINGFIELD PARK 23rd) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
George Baker · 409 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 9.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days6/4015.0%1.880/100.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)13/1488.8%1.070/160.0%0.0
On turf18/2148.4%1.11/412.4%0.32
In fields of <=79/6713.4%0.871/166.2%0.52
In Class 4-5 company19/1919.9%1.153/525.8%0.58
Too few runners to read reliably
Over 9-10f trips (small sample)6/3716.2%1.80/40.0%0.0
At Lingfield Park (small sample)5/3514.3%1.31/714.3%1.08
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 70 is below the ~78.3 the race demands
The rider
Oisin Murphy · last 14 days: 17/73· at Lingfield Park: A/E 0.88 (n167)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n3)· notable booking — a top rider for a yard he seldom rides for
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 4
+0.58 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 42.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 4
+0.19s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 4
103.9%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length4th of 4
7.10 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 May 26Kempton Park7fSlow6thFast early39.5 +0.39101.2+0.40
12 May 26Lingfield8fStd5thTrue40.5 +0.55108.0—
Timed runs 2026-05-12 to 2026-07-09. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Only 1 run at this distanceBOOKING UPGRADE — 12m top-2 jockey booked, only 1 ride(s) for this yard in 12m, after non-elite riders on the horse: an intent read (context only,…NEARLY WON LTO — traded 2.0 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“tracked pace, pushed along 3f out, carried head bit awkwardly 2f out, weakened”