FORMLAB Race Report — Lingfield Park 18:40

FORMLAB RACING

THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT

Lingfield Park · 18:40

Class 6 · 16.31f · Good to Firm

GENERATED 2026-07-22 · 7 RUNNERS PROFILED

THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.7%winner in the projected 1–2–3 63.7%212 races · latest settled day: #1 7/20, top-3 12/20forensic read: #1 27.3% · top-3 63.3% (139)full record →

The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW

No confirmed early pace on the book, so this one may turn tactical. Winners here typically raced recently (85% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (81% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 4th at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 47% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, THE CRAFTYMASTER leads on 75, 13pts clear of TINY RIOT (IRE) — proven at the trip. The case against the top pick: habitually slow from the stalls. The shape danger is CHERRY COLA — the strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it. The market sees it differently, making LUCKY SEVENS the 41% favourite — a horse our figures rate 3rd.

MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE

The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3

1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 3

THE CRAFTYMASTER

OR 53 · Myla Coppins / Tony Carroll

MARKET 5.9 · the market rates it a 17% chance

75.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD

Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−7lb below his last winning mark (53 today vs 60)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayThe top rating in this field (75.0)Proven over the trip (28 tries, beats market expectation at 1.68)

2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 2

TINY RIOT (IRE)

OR 60 · Kieran Shoemark / Dan Skelton

MARKET 4.2 · the market rates it a 24% chance

62.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD

figure earned over 10.2/7.1/6.5f, not today's distance — never rated near today's trip (untested here)Drops in class todayRated #2 in this field (62.0)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 1

LUCKY SEVENS

OR 57 · Billy Loughnane / James Owen

MARKET 2.42 · the market rates it a 41% chance

60.7 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD

Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−figure earned over 9.9/11.6/10.2f, not today's distance — never rated near today's trip (untested here)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #3 in this field (60.7)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market

The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY

1THE CRAFTYMASTERnet +8figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip − habitually slow away

2LUCKY SEVENSnet +6race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, sharp from the stalls, proven on the going, yard hot − figure earned on another surface

3TINY RIOT (IRE)net +3figure top-2, drops in class, market top-3

EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD

THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK

THE CRAFTYMASTER carries habitually slow from the stalls. LUCKY SEVENS is the one to beat it — an edge THE CRAFTYMASTER lacks: sharp from the stalls.

Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.

Race ShapePACE × FINISH

even/unclear early shape (no confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.

What this course & distance favours

Flat, very short straight (~200yd / ~1f) — a sprint home finish. Winners’ energy signature: 47.13% spent early (band 46.16–48.12%, 46 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~4 at halfway, 0.41s off the lead).

WHAT WINS THIS RACE

26 similar races at LINGFIELD PARK, 15.3-17.3f, all-aged handicaps, Class 5-7, May-Sep, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)

Winners here typically raced recently (85% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (81% from the first three favourites). 35% won last time out, 23% were placed 2nd-3rd.

Age

35% 6yo+

31% 4yo

19% 5yo

Last ran

46% 15-45d

38% within 14d

12% 46-90d

Market

38% 2nd favourite

31% favourite

19% 4th+ in the market

LTO form

38% unplaced last time

35% won last time

23% placed last time

The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.

Where the pace is drawn · 7 runners · stalls 1–7

1234567

Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.

If the ground changes

Should it turn softer: THE CRAFTYMASTER is 0/2 on softer ground · TINY RIOT (IRE) is 0/2 on softer ground · LUCKY SEVENS is unraced on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).

RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup

THE CRAFTYMASTER MID 48.2% 107.2 a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it

FRAM CASTLE (IRE) HELD-UP 49.2% 103.9 a genuine turn of foot — 4th-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it

CHERRY COLA MID 48.6% 107.9 the strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it

TINY RIOT (IRE) MID 48.5% 103.5 a genuine turn of foot — 5th-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it

MARINAKIS (IRE) MID 49.1% 102.5 solid late gains (7th of 7 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it

LUCKY SEVENS MID 48.9% 104.5 a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it

LILYKOY HELD-UP 48.7% 103.1 a genuine turn of foot — 6th-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it

The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER

#1 THE CRAFTYMASTER MID

DRAW 3 · OR 53 · Myla Coppins / Tony Carroll

MARKET 5.9 · the market rates it a 17% chance

Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−

75.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

Top on the figures, 13pts clear of the next, proven at the trip; habitually slow from the stalls.

FormLab Figure

75.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 81

Official mark (OR)

53 · last won off 60

Record at today's distance

7 wins from 28 tries · beats market expectation (1.68)

Days since last run

15

Sectional clock

Last time: beat the class par by 1.0s · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent-closer

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 107.2% (strong late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 9 places on the course scale (WOLVERHAMPTON 32nd → LINGFIELD PARK 23rd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Headgear

First-time tongue strap · yard 9% with first-time gear (A/E 0.96)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

2ndClass 6 · 14.0f · rated 751stClass 6 · 16.5f · rated 755thClass 6 · 17.1f · rated 566thClass 5 · 17.1f · rated 444thClass 6 · 14.0f · rated 62

Career sheet · last 18 months · 23 rated runs · spacing is real time

Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Tony Carroll · 2392 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange

Signature angle: at Bath, at this time of year (Q2), on turf, off a TFR-FALLING figure trend, with the mark MARK-FLAT, with a CLAIM-7 claimer up

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

Below their last winning mark11/1656.7%0.6719/10019.0%1.51

On turf ✦97/70713.7%1.247/23520.0%1.41

Over 11f+ trips ✦33/25512.9%1.1612/8713.8%1.24

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At this time of year (Q3) ✦51/49310.3%0.956/5710.5%0.83

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 81 at/around today's trip, clears the ~62.0 demand

The rider

Myla Coppins · last 14 days: 1/2 · at Lingfield Park: A/E 2.32 (n12) · with this yard: A/E 1.56 (n88)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields1st of 7

+0.34 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 36.7 raw

Break · 0-20mph5th of 7

+0.29s

Slow away in 2 of 4 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed2nd of 7

107.2%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length4th of 7

7.03 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

7 Jul 26Wolverhampton13fStd2ndTrue38.4 +0.49107.1—

28 Jun 26Wolverhampton16fStd1stTrue37.5 +2.29106.4+0.15

13 Jun 26Bath17fGood5thTrue36.5 -0.02108.4—

17 Apr 26Bath17fGd/Frm6th—36.1 +0.0097.9+0.36

6 Apr 26Wolverhampton13fStd4thTrue37.8 -0.32103.7+0.50

27 Mar 26Lingfield15fStd1stSlow early40.3 -0.41119.8+0.14

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1fledvery fast2f+0.03fast3f+0.03par4f+0.33par5f+0.17par6f+0.18slow7f+0.28slow1m+0.41slow1m 1f+0.40slow1m 2f+0.25slow1m 3f+0.17very slow1m 4f+0.34par1m 5f+0.23fast1m 6f+0.04fast

Timed runs 2026-03-27 to 2026-07-07. · 2 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

Read through a common rival

vs MARINAKIS (IRE) (read through QAAEADD, LUNAR POWER, SNEAKY BLINDER) ≈ +1.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs CHERRY COLA (read through CORSICAN CAPER, CAPONE, LUNAR POWER, BALGOWAN) ≈ -1.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs FRAM CASTLE (IRE) (read through IZAKAYA, POMERIGGIO, SMITH, SHABU SHABU) ≈ +0.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

7lb below his last winning mark (53 today vs 60)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayThe top rating in this field (75.0)Proven over the trip (28 tries, beats market expectation at 1.68)Stable in form this week — 3 wins from 14 runsJockey goes well at this track (2.32x market expectation)NEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.15 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Historically underestimated by the marketA course winner (3 from 10 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“led early, chased leader after 2f, forced to switch under 3f out, shaken up soon after, stayed on final 1f”

#2 TINY RIOT (IRE) MID

DRAW 2 · OR 60 · Kieran Shoemark / Dan Skelton

MARKET 4.2 · the market rates it a 24% chance

62.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

2nd on the figures, 13pts off the top, dropping in class; a genuine turn of foot — 5th-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

62.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 62 · earned over 10.2/7.1/6.5f — never rated near today's distance (untested here)

Official mark (OR)

60 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

untried at this distance

Days since last run

105

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.4s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races held-up closer

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 103.48% (strong late)

Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

5thClass 5 · 10.2f · rated 627thClass 5 · 7.1f · rated 576thClass 4 · 6.5f · rated 485thClass 5 · 6.0f · rated 29

Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Dan Skelton

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Can it do what today needs? Unproven at this trip — its 62 was earned OFF-TRIP and it has NEVER been rated at today's distance; no evidence it can hit the ~62.0 demand here

The rider

Kieran Shoemark · last 14 days: 4/37 · at Lingfield Park: A/E 1.1 (n114)

Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields5th of 7

-0.17 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 37.5 raw

Break · 0-20mph3rd of 7

+0.17s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed5th of 7

103.5%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length1st of 7

7.38 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

8 Apr 26Nottingham10fGood5thTrue37.4 -0.59104.6+0.22

28 Feb 26Southwell7fStd7thSlow early39.1 +0.09108.7+0.30

24 Oct 25Newbury6fHeavy6thTrue36.0 -0.0297.2+0.00

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.35slow2f+0.56slow3f+0.68slow4f+0.74very slow5f+0.67par6f+0.46very fast7f+0.46par1m+0.49par1m 1f+0.60par1m 2f+1.26par

Timed runs 2025-10-24 to 2026-04-08. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Drops in class todayRated #2 in this field (62.0)Rating earned over 10.2/7.1/6.5f, not today's distance — never rated near today's trip (untested at this distance)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“mid-division, outpaced over 3f out, rallied approaching final 1f, plugged on”

#3 LUCKY SEVENS MID

DRAW 1 · OR 57 · Billy Loughnane / James Owen

MARKET 2.42 · the market rates it a 41% chance

Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−

60.7 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

3rd on the figures, 14.3pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; its figure was earned on a different surface.

FormLab Figure

60.7 · ranked #3 here · career best 61 · earned over 9.9/11.6/10.2f — never rated near today's distance (untested here)

Official mark (OR)

57 · last won off 54

Record at today's distance

untried at this distance

Days since last run

31

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.5s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 104.45% (strong late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 13 places on the course scale (BRIGHTON 36th → LINGFIELD PARK 23rd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Headgear

First-time cheekpieces · yard 16% with first-time gear (A/E 1.22)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

1stClass 6 · 9.9f · rated 605thClass 6 · 11.6f · rated 612ndClass 6 · 10.2f · rated 613rdClass 6 · 10.1f · rated 611stClass 6 · 8.0f · rated 51

Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

James Owen · 1542 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange

Signature angle: at 4-8 odds, without a recent yard winner, on Good to Firm ground

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At this time of year (Q3)46/36612.6%0.929/5018.0%1.16

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 61 is below the ~62.0 the race demands

The rider

Billy Loughnane · last 14 days: 15/57 · at Lingfield Park: A/E 0.94 (n306) · with this yard: A/E 1.31 (n9)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields2nd of 7

-0.06 mph

About the level of its fields · 39.0 raw

Break · 0-20mph1st of 7

+0.05s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed3rd of 7

104.5%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length3rd of 7

7.28 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

21 Jun 26Brighton9fGd/Frm1stTrue41.2 -0.03102.3-0.25

30 May 26Lingfield11fGd/Frm5thTrue38.2 +0.11105.2+0.03

13 May 26Bath10fFirm2ndTrue38.6 +0.42106.2+0.06

28 Apr 26Yarmouth10fGood3rdTrue38.3 -0.06104.6+0.06

21 Apr 26Yarmouth8fGd/Frm1stTrue39.5 -0.04102.2+0.42

16 Mar 26Wolverhampton8fStd6thTrue38.1 -0.78106.2+0.00

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.36slow2f+0.53slow3f+0.56par4f+0.54par5f+0.51par6f+0.50fast7f+0.33par1m+0.08par1m 1fledpar1m 2fledpar

Timed runs 2026-03-16 to 2026-06-21. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

Read through a common rival

vs FRAM CASTLE (IRE) (read through PANTHERE NOIR, HEAD GIRL, DOGGED) ≈ -0.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs LILYKOY (read through PANTHERE NOIR, HEAD GIRL) ≈ +0.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Figure OFF-CONTEXT (10f→16f) — earned under different conditions3lb above his last winning mark (57 today vs 54)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #3 in this field (60.7)Rating earned over 9.9/11.6/10.2f, not today's distance — never rated near today's trip (untested at this distance)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“in touch, pushed along over 3f out, ridden and headway 2f out, led final 1f, edged left, kept on”

#4 CHERRY COLA MID

DRAW 5 · OR 50 · Rose Dawes / Sheena West

MARKET 32 · the market rates it a 3% chance

Yard mixed · 3+ / 3−

48.7 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

4th on the figures, 26.3pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; the strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

48.7 · ranked #4 here · career best 71

Official mark (OR)

50 · last won off 61

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 9 tries

Days since last run

65

Sectional clock

Last time: 2.8s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races midfield

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 107.88% (strong late)

Headgear

Cheekpieces

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

8thClass 6 · 16.3f · rated 365thClass 6 · 17.1f · rated 556thClass 6 · 13.1f · rated 553rdClass 6 · 14.1f · rated 574thClass 6 · 14.0f · rated 53

Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Sheena West · 121 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.0 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

In fields of <=72/2010.0%0.822/728.6%1.73

At Lingfield Park1/244.2%0.841/119.1%1.29

On turf9/7412.2%1.332/1414.3%1.25

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

Coming back after 46 to 90 days0/100.0%0.0—

At this time of year (Q3)4/439.3%1.010/40.0%0.0

Over 11f+ trips9/5815.5%1.571/214.8%0.59

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 71 at/around today's trip, clears the ~62.0 demand

The rider

Rose Dawes · last 14 days: 0/6 · at Lingfield Park: A/E 1.12 (n35) · with this yard: A/E 1.18 (n53)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields4th of 7

-0.16 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 38.2 raw

Break · 0-20mph2nd of 7

+0.13s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed1st of 7

107.9%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length7th of 7

6.85 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

18 May 26Lingfield16fGood8thTrue37.9 +0.15103.1+0.29

9 Oct 25Bath17fGood5th—37.4 +0.32108.3+0.21

30 Sep 25Bath13fGd/Frm6th—37.0 -0.48103.5+0.09

6 Aug 25Yarmouth14fFirm3rdFast early36.4 -0.91101.0+0.20

16 Jul 25Bath14fFirm4thTrue38.4 -0.47113.0+0.00

8 Jul 25Lingfield16fGood2ndTrue39.3 +0.43118.4-0.03

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.80par2f+0.82fast3f+1.01fast4f+1.38fast5f+2.01par6f+2.38slow7f+2.67very slow1m+2.88slow1m 1f+2.51par1m 2f+2.51par1m 3f+2.23slow1m 4f+2.38slow1m 5f+2.11par1m 6f+1.76very slow1m 7f+2.10very slow2m+3.57very slow

Timed runs 2025-07-08 to 2026-05-18. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

Read through a common rival

vs FRAM CASTLE (IRE) (read through SMITH, REGALLY BLONDE, LUNAR POWER, BALGOWAN) ≈ -2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs THE CRAFTYMASTER (read through CORSICAN CAPER, CAPONE, LUNAR POWER, BALGOWAN) ≈ +1.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs MARINAKIS (IRE) (read through LUNAR POWER, ENDOFASTORM, TRACKMAN, SNEAKY BLINDER) ≈ -1.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

11lb below his last winning mark (50 today vs 61)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“held up, effort over 3f out, little impression”

#5 LILYKOY HELD-UP

DRAW 4 · OR 45 · John Egan / Dylan Cunha

MARKET 19.5 · the market rates it a 5% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−

41.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

5th on the figures, 34pts off the top, fit and race-ready; its figure was earned on a different surface.

FormLab Figure

41.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 46 · earned over 12.0/12.0/11.4f — never rated near today's distance (untested here)

Official mark (OR)

45 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

untried at this distance

Days since last run

9

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.5s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races held-up closer

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 103.1% (strong late)

Headgear

First-time cheekpieces · yard 14% with first-time gear (A/E 1.51)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

8thClass 6 · 12.0f · rated 416thClass 6 · 12.0f · rated 225thClass 6 · 11.4f · rated 4611thClass 5 · 6.0f · rated —7thClass 5 · 7.0f · rated 31

Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Dylan Cunha · 812 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

Coming back after 8 to 14 days15/13211.4%0.8611/5022.0%1.82

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In Class 6-7 company26/18514.1%1.030/430.0%0.0

At this time of year (Q3)23/20311.3%0.991/263.8%0.42

In fields of <=7 ✦24/15415.6%0.916/629.7%0.57

At Lingfield Park10/5518.2%0.942/1910.5%0.74

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 46 is below the ~62.0 the race demands

The rider

John Egan · last 14 days: 1/13 · at Lingfield Park: A/E 0.29 (n87) · with this yard: A/E 0.85 (n12)

Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields6th of 7

-0.21 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 37.9 raw

Break · 0-20mph6th of 7

+0.29s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed6th of 7

103.1%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length6th of 7

6.87 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

13 Jul 26Lingfield12fStd8thTrue38.5 -0.08107.8+0.29

1 Jul 26Epsom Downs12fGood6th—37.5 +0.00106.6+0.59—

8 Jun 26Windsor11fGd/Sft5thTrue37.0 -0.07105.1+0.16

30 Oct 25Chelmsford City6fStd11thTrue39.2 -0.1595.7+0.15

7 Oct 25Southwell7fStd12thTrue37.4 -0.74100.3+0.26

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.65par2f+0.71par3f+0.82par4f+1.02slow5f+0.92par6f+0.81par7f+0.78slow1m+0.92slow1m 1f+0.73par1m 2f+0.67par1m 3f+1.08slow1m 4f+1.27fast

Timed runs 2025-10-07 to 2026-07-13. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

FRAM CASTLE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 9.2L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

1 Jul 26 · 12f · Good — finished 6th vs 8th, 11.25L ahead

THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+9.2L adj, 1 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs LUCKY SEVENS (read through PANTHERE NOIR, HEAD GIRL) ≈ -0.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs MARINAKIS (IRE) (read through PABLO PRINCE, DOTTIES STAR) ≈ -0.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Figure OFF-CONTEXT (12f→16f) — earned under different conditionsRating earned over 12.0/12.0/11.4f, not today's distance — never rated near today's trip (untested at this distance)Race-fit — ran 9 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price

LTO comment

“outpaced, passed beaten rivals”

#6 MARINAKIS (IRE) MID

DRAW 6 · OR 45 · Luke Morris / Robert Stephens

MARKET 110 · the market rates it a 1% chance

Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−

38.7 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

6th on the figures, 36.3pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; solid late gains (7th of 7 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

38.7 · ranked #6 here · career best 57 · earned over 12.0/12.0/11.6f — never rated near today's distance (untested here)

Official mark (OR)

45 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

untried at this distance

Days since last run

16

Sectional clock

Last time: 2.7s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races midfield

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 102.54% (holds late)

Headgear

First-time cheekpieces and tongue strap

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

4thClass 6 · 12.0f · rated 318thClass 6 · 12.0f · rated —8thClass 6 · 12.0f · rated 466thClass 6 · 11.6f · rated 394thClass 6 · 9.5f · rated 47

Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Robert Stephens · 115 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 10.0 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

In Class 6-7 company7/6810.3%1.015/2123.8%2.78

Coming back after 15 to 45 days2/385.3%0.792/1414.3%1.43

Over 11f+ trips7/4415.9%1.462/1612.5%1.21

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

On turf2/248.3%1.090/50.0%0.0

Too few runners to read reliably

At Lingfield Park (small sample)0/70.0%0.00/30.0%0.0

At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)3/2114.3%1.660/20.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 57 is below the ~62.0 the race demands

The rider

Luke Morris · last 14 days: 3/40 · at Lingfield Park: A/E 1.06 (n455) · with this yard: A/E 1.4 (n18)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields3rd of 7

-0.12 mph

About the level of its fields · 37.5 raw

Break · 0-20mph4th of 7

+0.18s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed7th of 7

102.5%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length2nd of 7

7.35 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

6 Jul 26Lingfield12fStd/Slow4thTrue38.2 +0.6799.1+0.06

6 Jun 26Chepstow12fSoft8thTrue35.1 -1.0495.5+0.50

20 May 26Kempton Park11fSlow8thTrue38.3 +0.27107.3+0.00

27 Apr 26Bath11fGd/Frm6thTrue37.7 -0.14103.1+0.32

31 Mar 26Wolverhampton9fStd4thTrue38.4 -0.25108.0+0.00

17 Mar 26Wolverhampton9fStd3rdTrue37.3 -0.23102.2—

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.07par2f+0.14very slow3f+0.18fast4f+0.24fast5f+0.24fast6f+0.24fast7f+0.19par1m+0.19par1m 1f+0.32slow1m 2f+0.91very slow1m 3f+1.86very slow1m 4f+2.57very slow

Timed runs 2026-03-17 to 2026-07-06. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

Read through a common rival

vs THE CRAFTYMASTER (read through QAAEADD, LUNAR POWER, SNEAKY BLINDER) ≈ -1.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs CHERRY COLA (read through LUNAR POWER, ENDOFASTORM, TRACKMAN, SNEAKY BLINDER) ≈ +1.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs FRAM CASTLE (IRE) (read through PABLO PRINCE, DOTTIES STAR, ELECTRIC BASS, THUNDERING BREEZE) ≈ +0.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs LILYKOY (read through PABLO PRINCE, DOTTIES STAR) ≈ +0.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRating earned over 12.0/12.0/11.6f, not today's distance — never rated near today's trip (untested at this distance)Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“handy, under pressure under 4f out, lost place home turn, no further impression”

#7 FRAM CASTLE (IRE) HELD-UP

DRAW 7 · OR 50 · Alexandra Egan / Michael Wigham

MARKET 11.5 · the market rates it a 9% chance

Yard suits today’s conditions · 6+ / 0−

36 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

7th on the figures, 39pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; a genuine turn of foot — 4th-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

36 · ranked #7 here · career best 65 · earned over 12.0/12.0/9.9f — but has run to 62 at today's distance, proven here (rating understates him)

Official mark (OR)

50 · last won off 54

Record at today's distance

1 win from 4 tries · in line with the market (0.98)

Days since last run

21

Sectional clock

Last time: 2.3s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races midfield-closer · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 103.94% (strong late)

Course scale · class context

drops 17 places on the course scale (EPSOM DOWNS 6th → LINGFIELD PARK 23rd) — much easier company than the bare class suggests

Headgear

First-time visor

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

8thClass 6 · 12.0f · rated 1612thClass 6 · 12.0f · rated 376thClass 6 · 9.9f · rated 557thClass 6 · 15.8f · rated 512ndClass 6 · 13.0f · rated 55

Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Michael Wigham · 268 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange

Signature angle: mid-campaign

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

On turf19/10318.4%1.399/2931.0%2.19

Coming back after 15 to 45 days10/9610.4%1.194/1723.5%1.9

In Class 6-7 company12/11010.9%1.178/2433.3%1.84

In fields of <=77/2825.0%1.514/1136.4%1.69

At this time of year (Q3)13/8116.0%1.362/728.6%1.51

Below their last winning mark2/1315.4%1.761/616.7%1.32

Too few runners to read reliably

At Lingfield Park (small sample)1/119.1%1.580/10.0%0.0

Over 11f+ trips (small sample)4/2317.4%2.770/10.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Proven at the trip — has run to 62 at today's distance, clears the ~62.0 demand (career best 65 came off-trip)

The rider

Alexandra Egan · last 14 days: 1/4 · at Lingfield Park: A/E 2.25 (n6)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields7th of 7

-0.40 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 37.2 raw

Break · 0-20mph7th of 7

+0.33s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed4th of 7

103.9%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length5th of 7

7.02 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

1 Jul 26Epsom Downs12fGood8th—36.3 -1.23101.7+0.16—

3 Nov 25Kempton Park11fStd12thTrue37.6 -0.75101.4+0.53

16 Oct 25Brighton9fGd/Frm6thSlow early41.5 +0.00103.6+0.29

21 Aug 25Lingfield15fStd7thTrue36.7 -0.11103.1+0.32

9 Aug 25Lingfield13fGd/Frm2nd—37.6 +0.00105.7+0.33

30 Jun 25Ffos Las16fGd/Sft5thTrue37.2 -0.30108.2+0.37

Timed runs 2025-06-30 to 2026-07-01. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

LILYKOY · 1 meeting≈ 9.2L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

1 Jul 26 · 12f · Good — finished 8th vs 6th, 11.25L behind

THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-9.2L adj, 1 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs CHERRY COLA (read through SMITH, REGALLY BLONDE, LUNAR POWER, BALGOWAN) ≈ +2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs LUCKY SEVENS (read through PANTHERE NOIR, HEAD GIRL, DOGGED) ≈ +0.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs THE CRAFTYMASTER (read through IZAKAYA, POMERIGGIO, SMITH, SHABU SHABU) ≈ -0.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs MARINAKIS (IRE) (read through PABLO PRINCE, DOTTIES STAR, ELECTRIC BASS, THUNDERING BREEZE) ≈ -0.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

4lb below his last winning mark (50 today vs 54)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRating earned over 12.0/12.0/9.9f, but he has run to 62 at today's distance — proven at this trip (his rating understates him here)Only 4 runs at this distanceJockey goes well at this track (2.25x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price

LTO comment

“slowly away, off pace, struggling early in straight”