THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.7%winner in the projected 1–2–3 63.7%212 races · latest settled day: #1 7/20, top-3 12/20forensic read: #1 27.3% · top-3 63.3% (139)full record →
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
ASUKA is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners here typically raced recently (64% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (86% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 3rd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 48% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, ASUKA leads on 97, 52pts clear of YAZOO — in form. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is YAZOO — the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market agrees — it makes ASUKA the 96% favourite.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 2
ASUKA
OR · Billy Loughnane / George Boughey
MARKET 1.05 · the market rates it a 96% chance
97.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (97.0)Runs Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 1
YAZOO
OR · George Wood / Richard Spencer
MARKET 34 · the market rates it a 3% chance
45.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−Rated #2 in this field (45.0)
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 3
COILLTEDUDEISBACK
OR · Pat Cosgrave / Adam Kirby
MARKET 110 · the market rates it a 1% chance
12.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−Rated #3 in this field (12.0)Race-fit — ran 8 days ago
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1ASUKAnet +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, sharp from the stalls, energy in the winning band, yard hot
2YAZOOnet +5figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, energy in the winning band, FormLab watch flag
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. YAZOO is the one to beat it — an edge ASUKA lacks: flagged on our watch list.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Flat, very short straight (~200yd / ~1f) — a sprint home finish. Draw: Modern Poly data broadly FAIR incl. 5f (low NOT clearly advantaged despite the tight early bend). at 5f a HOLD-UP/closer edge is statistically meaningful. Winners’ energy signature: 48.48% spent early (band 47.8–49.49%, 186 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~3 at halfway, 0.22s off the lead).
WHAT WINS THIS RACE
22 similar races at LINGFIELD PARK, 5.0-7.0f, all-aged non-handicaps, Class 3-5, May-Sep, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (64% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (86% from the first three favourites). 18% won last time out, 41% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
100% 3yo
Last ran
55% 15-45d
27% first run
9% within 14d
Market
45% favourite
36% 2nd favourite
14% 4th+ in the market
LTO form
41% placed last time
27% first run
18% won last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 3 runners · stalls 1–3
123
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: ASUKA is 1/1 on softer ground · YAZOO is 0/1 on softer ground · COILLTEDUDEISBACK is unraced on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
ASUKAPROMINENT49.3%100.9the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — and holds on late · sharp from the stalls
COILLTEDUDEISBACK——103.4-
YAZOOHELD-UP48.6%103.7the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
ASUKAPROMINENTtypically ~3.4 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
ASUKA is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1ASUKAPROMINENT
DRAW 2 · OR · Billy Loughnane / George Boughey
MARKET 1.05 · the market rates it a 96% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
97.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 52pts clear of the next, in form; the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — and holds on late, sharp from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
97.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 97
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 2 tries · beats market expectation (1.84)
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 100.88% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 9 places on the course scale (WOLVERHAMPTON 32nd → LINGFIELD PARK 23rd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 2 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Timed runs 2024-08-09 to 2026-07-07. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (97.0)Only 2 runs at this distanceStable cold this week — 2 wins from 10 runsNEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.02 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Runs Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“never far away, effort over 2f out, quickened to lead over 1f out, drew clear well inside final 1f, plenty in hand”
#2YAZOOHELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 1 · OR · George Wood / Richard Spencer
MARKET 34 · the market rates it a 3% chance
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
45.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 52pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
45.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 45
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 2 tries
Days since last run
20
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 103.67% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
drops 7 places on the course scale (KEMPTON PARK 16th → LINGFIELD PARK 23rd) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Headgear
First-time blinkers
Recent form · last 2 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Timed runs 2026-06-11 to 2026-06-11. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Rated #2 in this field (45.0)Only 2 runs at this distance
LTO comment
“unseated rider start”
#3COILLTEDUDEISBACKFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 3 · OR · Pat Cosgrave / Adam Kirby
MARKET 110 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−
12.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 85pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
12.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 12
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
8
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
— · finishing speed 103.4% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 9 places on the course scale (WOLVERHAMPTON 32nd → LINGFIELD PARK 23rd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
10thClass 5 · 6.1f · rated 12
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Adam Kirby · 109 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 2.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days—7/3420.6%1.25
Over 5-6f trips—11/6417.2%1.15
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)—0/210.0%0.0
In Class 4-5 company—4/557.3%0.73
On turf—6/738.2%0.74
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 12 is below the ~38.0 the race demands
The rider
Pat Cosgrave · last 14 days: 1/19· at Lingfield Park: A/E 0.66 (n146)· with this yard: A/E 0.53 (n23)
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 3
+0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.4 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 3
+0.50s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 3
103.4%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length1st of 3
7.38 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-07-14 to 2026-07-14. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Rated #3 in this field (12.0)Only 1 run at this distanceRace-fit — ran 8 days ago