THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.7%winner in the projected 1–2–3 63.7%212 races · latest settled day: #1 7/20, top-3 12/20forensic read: #1 27.3% · top-3 63.3% (139)full record →
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners here typically raced recently (76% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (71% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 3rd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 49% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, HILLTOP leads on 84, 4pts clear of MOJITO — prominent in the betting. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is DANDY KHAN (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market sees it differently, making STORMY MUSIC the 27% favourite — a horse our figures rate 5th.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 7
HILLTOP
OR 75 · Ebrahim Nader / Daniel & Claire Kubler
MARKET 5.4 · the market rates it a 18% chance
84.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−The top rating in this field (84.0)A course winner (1 from 3 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 8
MOJITO
OR 71 · Pat Dobbs / Richard Hannon
MARKET 8.8 · the market rates it a 11% chance
80.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−Rated #2 in this field (80.0)Historically underestimated by the market
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 2
KAORI
OR 72 · Billy Loughnane / George Boughey
MARKET 7.6 · the market rates it a 13% chance
76.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−Rated #3 in this field (76.0)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1KAORInet +6race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, yard hot − clock FADE
2BELLA BISBEEnet +6race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), quickest early type, runs the dominant winning style here, proven on the going, yard positive in today’s setup
3DANDY KHAN (IRE)net +5race-fit (ran <=45d), top-2 late speed today, energy in the winning band, proven at trip, yard positive in today’s setup, FormLab watch flag − habitually slow away
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. KAORI is the one to beat it — an edge HILLTOP lacks: one of the two strongest finishers here.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
STORMY MUSIC FIGURE #5
Andrew Balding's runners at Lingfield Park win 26.7% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Andrew Balding's runners coming back after 15 to 45 days win 24.1% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
SAYIDAH ALEEN (IRE) FIGURE #6
Marco Botti's runners coming back after 15 to 45 days win 17.7% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
BELLA BISBEE FIGURE #8
Scott Dixon's runners coming back after 8 to 14 days win 9.2% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Scott Dixon's runners above their last winning mark win 13.5% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (2 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Flat, very short straight (~200yd / ~1f) — a sprint home finish. Winners’ energy signature: 48.67% spent early (band 47.82–49.38%, 210 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~3 at halfway, 0.26s off the lead).
WHAT WINS THIS RACE
17 similar races at LINGFIELD PARK, 6.5-7.5f, all-aged handicaps, Class 5, Jun-Aug, 2023-2026
Winners here typically raced recently (76% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (71% from the first three favourites). 6% won last time out, 59% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
41% 3yo
29% 6yo+
18% 5yo
Last ran
53% 15-45d
24% within 14d
18% 46-90d
Market
35% 2nd favourite
35% favourite
29% 4th+ in the market
LTO form
59% placed last time
35% unplaced last time
6% won last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 8 runners · stalls 1–8
12345678
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 3.0 of 8, field average 4.5).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: HILLTOP is 0/2 on softer ground · MOJITO is 0/2 on softer ground · KAORI is 0/4 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
HILLTOPMID49.5%100.5the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
BELLA BISBEEPROMINENT49.5%100.0the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late
WETSAND (IRE)MID50.2%97.7held up without the late gear (7th of 8 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
KAORIMID49.1%103.7a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
MOJITOMID49.9%97.7held up without the late gear (8th of 8 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
SAYIDAH ALEEN (IRE)PROMINENT50.0%100.1a match for the quickest early, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late
STORMY MUSICMID50.0%100.4one-paced late — 4th of 8 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
DANDY KHAN (IRE)MID47.9%107.0the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
BELLA BISBEEPROMINENTtypically ~1.4 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.08s off the field’s best
SAYIDAH ALEEN (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.17s off the field’s best
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1HILLTOPMID
DRAW 7 · OR 75 · Ebrahim Nader / Daniel & Claire Kubler
MARKET 5.4 · the market rates it a 18% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−
84.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 4pts clear of the next, prominent in the betting; the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
84.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 84
Official mark (OR)
75 · last won off 72
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 17 tries · in line with the market (0.97)
Days since last run
57
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · best on the clock in its race Usually races midfield-closer
Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Daniel & Claire Kubler · 545 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Above their last winning mark30/17017.6%1.146/3119.4%1.8
Over 7-8f trips ✦29/20614.1%1.047/3818.4%1.39
At this time of year (Q3)39/20419.1%1.263/1127.3%1.37
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 8-1139/23416.7%1.12/326.2%0.45
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after 46 to 90 days (small sample)5/2025.0%1.861/520.0%0.91
At Lingfield Park (small sample)4/3511.4%0.921/714.3%1.08
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 84 at/around today's trip, clears the ~79.0 demand
The rider
Ebrahim Nader · last 14 days: 0/2· at Lingfield Park: A/E 0 (n1)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n3)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 8
-0.01 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 8
+0.07s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 8
100.5%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length6th of 8
7.16 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
26 May 26Lingfield7fGood3rdTrue41.5 -0.1097.7+0.00
11 Mar 26Newcastle7fStd1stTrue39.8 +0.00103.7-0.04
3 Jan 26Southwell7fStd4thTrue39.4 +0.15102.6+0.10
15 Dec 25Wolverhampton7fStd8thTrue39.8 -0.1097.3+0.17
20 Nov 25Newcastle7fSlow2ndFast early40.2 +0.0697.4+0.09
25 Oct 25Wolverhampton7fSlow3rdSlow early39.0 -0.09104.1+0.10
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-10-25 to 2026-05-26. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
26 May 26 · 7f · Good — finished 3rd vs 4th, 2.25L ahead
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — confirms vs 1 rival(s) met (+1.3L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs DANDY KHAN (IRE) (read through SERENITY DREAM, BEAU JARDINE, PARTY BEAR, HANDLE WITH CARE) ≈ -2.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (75 today vs 72)The top rating in this field (84.0)NEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.51 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 3 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“held up, progress over 1f out, snatched up entering final 1f, rallied, kept on well”
#2MOJITOMID
DRAW 8 · OR 71 · Pat Dobbs / Richard Hannon
MARKET 8.8 · the market rates it a 11% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−
80.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 4pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
80.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 80
Official mark (OR)
71 · last won off 65
Record at today's distance
1 win from 5 tries · beats market expectation (1.87)
Days since last run
60
Sectional clock
Last time: 7.3s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races prominent and weakens
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard Hannon · 2095 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: jockey_named Pat Dobbs
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 7-8f trips65/6799.6%0.8835/21716.1%1.37
At Lingfield Park17/12413.7%1.09/5317.0%1.34
At this time of year (Q3)56/6678.4%0.8112/7715.6%1.28
Coming back after 46 to 90 days15/10913.8%1.243/2711.1%1.24
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 79 at/around today's trip, clears the ~79.0 demand
The rider
Pat Dobbs · last 14 days: 1/13· at Lingfield Park: A/E 0.64 (n24)· with this yard: A/E 1.15 (n307)
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 8
+0.15 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 8
+0.32s
Slow away in 3 of 5 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed8th of 8
97.7%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 8
7.56 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
28 Aug 25Newbury6fGd/Frm5thTrue40.2 +0.35100.2+0.40
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.212f+0.283f+0.194f+0.265f+0.446f+2.007f+7.41
Timed runs 2025-08-28 to 2026-05-23. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
STORMY MUSIC · 1 meeting≈ 1.2L ahead on today's terms · confirms
28 Aug 25 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 5th vs 6th, 1.25L ahead
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — confirms vs 1 rival(s) met (+1.2L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
6lb above his last winning mark (71 today vs 65)Rated #2 in this field (80.0)Improving fast — last run rated 80, 16pts above his recent average of 64.0Only 5 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“close up, lost place quickly 2f out”
#3KAORIMID
DRAW 2 · OR 72 · Billy Loughnane / George Boughey
MARKET 7.6 · the market rates it a 13% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−
76.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 8pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; the clock has it fading late.
FormLab Figure
76.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 77
Official mark (OR)
72 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 4 tries
Days since last run
26
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s) Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 103.74% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
drops 5 places on the course scale (YARMOUTH 18th → LINGFIELD PARK 23rd) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
George Boughey · 1376 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: over 9-10f trips
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)65/39616.4%1.075/3215.6%0.72
On turf107/63017.0%1.0124/16214.8%0.84
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 78 is below the ~79.0 the race demands
The rider
Billy Loughnane · last 14 days: 15/57· at Lingfield Park: A/E 0.94 (n306)· with this yard: A/E 0.96 (n688)
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 8
+0.13 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 8
+0.08s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 8
103.7%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length8th of 8
7.04 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
26 Jun 26Yarmouth8fGd/Frm3rdTrue40.8 +0.39107.2+0.14
4 Jun 26Lingfield10fStd6thTrue39.8 -0.15104.3+0.26
2 Aug 25Newmarket7fGood3rdSlow early40.4 +0.21103.3+0.12
24 Jun 25Newbury7fGd/Frm4thTrue—102.6—
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.49very slow2f+0.38very slow3f+0.38very slow4f+0.37par5f+0.26fast6f+0.15very fast7f+0.03very fast1m+0.14very fast
Timed runs 2025-06-24 to 2026-06-26. · 1 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Rated #3 in this field (76.0)Only 4 runs at this distanceStable cold this week — 2 wins from 10 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“steadied start, pushed along 2f out, stayed on”
#4WETSAND (IRE)MID
DRAW 6 · OR 73 · Luke Morris / James Owen
MARKET 9.2 · the market rates it a 11% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−
73.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 11pts off the top, proven at the trip; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
73.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 87
Official mark (OR)
73 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 10 tries · beats market expectation (2.41)
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class Usually races held-up (one-paced)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
James Owen · 1542 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: at 4-8 odds, without a recent yard winner, on Good to Firm ground
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)46/36612.6%0.929/5018.0%1.16
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 85 at/around today's trip, clears the ~79.0 demand
The rider
Luke Morris · last 14 days: 3/40· at Lingfield Park: A/E 1.06 (n455)· with this yard: A/E 1.09 (n112)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields7th of 8
-0.11 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 8
+0.12s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 8
97.7%
One-paced late
Stride length4th of 8
7.23 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-11-01 to 2026-07-07. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven over the trip (10 tries, beats market expectation at 2.41)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“close up, pushed along over 2f out, weakened final 1f”
#5STORMY MUSICMID
DRAW 4 · OR 68 · Oisin Murphy / Andrew Balding
MARKET 3.65 · the market rates it a 27% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 5+ / 0−
67.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 17pts off the top, prominent in the betting; one-paced late — 4th of 8 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
67.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 67
Official mark (OR)
68 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 3 tries
Days since last run
20
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.5s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races prominent and weakens
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Andrew Balding · 2431 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, at Newcastle, jockey_named P. J. McDonald, off a steady mark, at 4-8 odds, dropping in trip
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Lingfield Park ✦19/10817.6%1.0312/4526.7%1.36
Over 7-8f trips ✦129/75417.1%1.0549/21522.8%1.25
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦199/104919.0%1.1270/29124.1%1.23
At this time of year (Q3) ✦134/74218.1%1.1116/7022.9%1.21
In Class 4-5 company ✦184/96219.1%1.0357/22725.1%1.18
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 65 is below the ~79.0 the race demands
The rider
Oisin Murphy · last 14 days: 17/73· at Lingfield Park: A/E 0.88 (n167)· with this yard: A/E 1.04 (n943)
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 8
-0.06 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 8
+0.11s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 8
100.4%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length5th of 8
7.20 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-08-28 to 2026-07-02. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
28 Aug 25 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 6th vs 5th, 1.25L behind
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — reverses vs 1 rival(s) met (-1.2L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Only 3 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 4 wins from 15 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“chased leaders, ridden over 2f out, no extra final 100 yds”
#6SAYIDAH ALEEN (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 5 · OR 68 · Kieran Shoemark / Marco Botti
MARKET 18 · the market rates it a 6% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−
61.7FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 22.3pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; a match for the quickest early, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late.
FormLab Figure
61.7 · ranked #6 here · career best 68
Official mark (OR)
68 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 3 tries
Days since last run
18
Sectional clock
Last time: 2.0s slower than par — the result flattered it · best on the clock in its race Usually races prominent · clock read is off a superseded run
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Marco Botti · 836 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)25/18813.3%1.225/2718.5%1.32
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦43/32513.2%1.0214/7917.7%1.19
At Lingfield Park10/5518.2%1.094/1921.1%1.18
In fields of 8-1135/3529.9%0.8814/8217.1%1.15
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 68 is below the ~79.0 the race demands
The rider
Kieran Shoemark · last 14 days: 4/37· at Lingfield Park: A/E 1.1 (n114)· with this yard: A/E 1.36 (n8)· notable booking — a top rider for a yard he seldom rides for
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields8th of 8
-0.45 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 40.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 8
+0.17s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 8
100.1%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length3rd of 8
7.48 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
4 Jul 26Leicester6fGd/Frm7th—42.2 -0.3398.1+0.46—
6 Jun 26Lingfield7fSoft3rdTrue39.4 +0.1696.6—
19 May 26Lingfield7fGood2ndTrue39.5 +0.0599.9+0.05
31 Mar 26Wolverhampton8fStd4thSlow early37.8 -1.66105.6+0.00
Timed runs 2026-03-31 to 2026-07-04. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Only 3 runs at this distanceLost roughly 2.1 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultBOOKING UPGRADE — 12m top-15 jockey booked, only 1 ride(s) for this yard in 12m, after non-elite riders on the horse: an intent read (context only,…Runs Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led, ridden over 2f out, headed final 1f, kept on”
#7DANDY KHAN (IRE)MIDFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 3 · OR 61 · Pat Cosgrave / Jim Boyle
MARKET 55 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 4−
61FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 23pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
61 · ranked #7 here · career best 70
Official mark (OR)
61 · last won off 60
Record at today's distance
5 wins from 26 tries · beats market expectation (2.19)
Days since last run
13
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class Usually races prominent · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 106.96% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
drops 17 places on the course scale (EPSOM DOWNS 6th → LINGFIELD PARK 23rd) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 23 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jim Boyle · 460 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.3 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days11/7913.9%1.174/2218.2%1.91
At Lingfield Park9/6813.2%1.196/4214.3%1.22
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Above their last winning mark ✦11/10110.9%0.762/405.0%0.38
On turf ✦23/2489.3%0.873/634.8%0.57
At this time of year (Q3)14/1638.6%0.851/205.0%0.58
In fields of 8-11 ✦11/1885.9%0.614/606.7%0.67
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 72 is below the ~79.0 the race demands
The rider
Pat Cosgrave · last 14 days: 1/19· at Lingfield Park: A/E 0.66 (n146)· with this yard: A/E 0.62 (n134)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 8
+0.03 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 8
+0.33s
Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed1st of 8
107.0%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length7th of 8
7.14 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Mar 26Lingfield7fStd5thTrue40.8 +0.00107.1+0.31
20 Mar 26Lingfield8fStd3rdTrue40.7 +0.30105.9+0.51
5 Mar 26Lingfield7fStd5thSlow early40.5 -0.45108.2+0.36
28 Feb 26Lingfield7fStd1stTrue41.4 +0.00109.5+0.08
Timed runs 2026-02-28 to 2026-07-09. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+3.9L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs HILLTOP (read through SERENITY DREAM, BEAU JARDINE, PARTY BEAR, HANDLE WITH CARE) ≈ +2.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven over the trip (26 tries, beats market expectation at 2.19)Lost roughly 2.2 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (5 from 16 here)
LTO comment
“slowly away, off pace, shaken up early in straight, not quicken, weakened final 1f”
#8BELLA BISBEEPROMINENT
DRAW 1 · OR 72 · Kieran O'Neill / Scott Dixon
MARKET 8.2 · the market rates it a 12% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 6+ / 1−
57.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
8th on the figures, 26.7pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late.
FormLab Figure
57.3 · ranked #8 here · career best 79
Official mark (OR)
72 · last won off 68
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 33 tries · below market expectation (0.91)
Days since last run
13
Sectional clock
Last time: 2.9s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 23 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Scott Dixon · 1054 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 9.1 on the exchange
Signature angle: off marks in the 61 to 75 range, off a judgement-rated last figure
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Lingfield Park5/5010.0%1.415/2718.5%1.79
In Class 4-5 company ✦20/2687.5%1.0914/11911.8%1.41
Above their last winning mark ✦21/17811.8%1.1213/9613.5%1.37
Over 7-8f trips ✦34/4407.7%1.039/1098.3%1.27
Coming back after 8 to 14 days ✦19/2178.8%1.219/989.2%1.24
At this time of year (Q3)14/1957.2%1.073/2114.3%1.15
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
On turf24/20411.8%1.175/846.0%0.78
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 81 at/around today's trip, clears the ~79.0 demand
The rider
Kieran O'Neill · last 14 days: 1/14· at Lingfield Park: A/E 0.77 (n262)· with this yard: A/E 1.32 (n341)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 8
-0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 8
+0.08s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 8
100.0%
One-paced late
Stride length1st of 8
7.64 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-05-12 to 2026-07-09. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (-2.0L adj, 3 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb above his last winning mark (72 today vs 68)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 8 here)